Lesley L. Smith
Position
Research Associate
Division
Attribution and Predictability Assessments Team
Affiliation
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El Nino Rapid Response GFS Data
Composites of differences
Divergent Wind
Deep tropics flights 0122 0126 0127 0203 0213 0216 0227 0228 0301 0302
Mean:
mean cases normalized by all nonflight days linked below
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast
GFS 0Z 3h Forecast minus 18Z 9h Forecast
GFS 0Z 6h Forecast minus 18Z 12h Forecast
GFS 0Z 12h Forecast minus 18Z 18h Forecast
GFS 0Z 24h Forecast minus 18Z 30h Forecast
GFS 0Z 36h Forecast minus 18Z 42h Forecast
GFS 0Z 48h Forecast minus 18Z 54h Forecast
Semi-deep tropics flights 0130 0131 0204 0215 0217 0218 0219 0304
Mean:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast
GFS 0Z 3h Forecast minus 18Z 9h Forecast
GFS 0Z 6h Forecast minus 18Z 12h Forecast
GFS 0Z 12h Forecast minus 18Z 18h Forecast
GFS 0Z 24h Forecast minus 18Z 30h Forecast
GFS 0Z 36h Forecast minus 18Z 42h Forecast
GFS 0Z 48h Forecast minus 18Z 54h Forecast
Divergent Wind Speed (sqrt(UD^2+VD^2))
Deep tropics flights 0122 0126 0127 0203 0213 0216 0227 0228 0301 0302
rms cases normalized by all nonflight days linked below
Root-Mean-Square:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast
GFS 0Z 3h Forecast minus 18Z 9h Forecast
GFS 0Z 6h Forecast minus 18Z 12h Forecast
GFS 0Z 12h Forecast minus 18Z 18h Forecast
GFS 0Z 24h Forecast minus 18Z 30h Forecast
GFS 0Z 36h Forecast minus 18Z 42h Forecast
GFS 0Z 48h Forecast minus 18Z 54h Forecast
Semi-deep tropics flights 0130 0131 0204 0215 0217 0218 0219 0304
Root-Mean-Square:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast
GFS 0Z 3h Forecast minus 18Z 9h Forecast
GFS 0Z 6h Forecast minus 18Z 12h Forecast
GFS 0Z 12h Forecast minus 18Z 18h Forecast
GFS 0Z 24h Forecast minus 18Z 30h Forecast
GFS 0Z 36h Forecast minus 18Z 42h Forecast
GFS 0Z 48h Forecast minus 18Z 54h Forecast
Normalized Means wrt all nonflight days 20160121-20160331
Deep tropics flights 0122 0126 0127 0203 0213 0216 0227 0228 0301 0302
Mean:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast
GFS 0Z 3h Forecast minus 18Z 9h Forecast
GFS 0Z 6h Forecast minus 18Z 12h Forecast
GFS 0Z 12h Forecast minus 18Z 18h Forecast
GFS 0Z 24h Forecast minus 18Z 30h Forecast
GFS 0Z 36h Forecast minus 18Z 42h Forecast
GFS 0Z 48h Forecast minus 18Z 54h Forecast
Semi-deep tropics flights 0130 0131 0204 0215 0217 0218 0219 0304
Mean:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast
GFS 0Z 3h Forecast minus 18Z 9h Forecast
GFS 0Z 6h Forecast minus 18Z 12h Forecast
GFS 0Z 12h Forecast minus 18Z 18h Forecast
GFS 0Z 24h Forecast minus 18Z 30h Forecast
GFS 0Z 36h Forecast minus 18Z 42h Forecast
GFS 0Z 48h Forecast minus 18Z 54h Forecast
Root-Mean-Square:
rms cases normalized by all nonflight days
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast
GFS 0Z 3h Forecast minus 18Z 9h Forecast
GFS 0Z 6h Forecast minus 18Z 12h Forecast
GFS 0Z 12h Forecast minus 18Z 18h Forecast
GFS 0Z 24h Forecast minus 18Z 30h Forecast
GFS 0Z 36h Forecast minus 18Z 42h Forecast
GFS 0Z 48h Forecast minus 18Z 54h Forecast
Semi-deep tropics flights 0130 0131 0204 0215 0217 0218 0219 0304
Root-Mean-Square:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast
GFS 0Z 3h Forecast minus 18Z 9h Forecast
GFS 0Z 6h Forecast minus 18Z 12h Forecast
GFS 0Z 12h Forecast minus 18Z 18h Forecast
GFS 0Z 24h Forecast minus 18Z 30h Forecast
GFS 0Z 36h Forecast minus 18Z 42h Forecast
GFS 0Z 48h Forecast minus 18Z 54h Forecast
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Zonal and Meridional Components of Divergent Wind
Zonal component of Divergent Wind:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast
GFS 0Z 3h Forecast minus 18Z 9h Forecast
GFS 0Z 6h Forecast minus 18Z 12h Forecast
GFS 0Z 12h Forecast minus 18Z 18h Forecast
GFS 0Z 24h Forecast minus 18Z 30h Forecast
GFS 0Z 36h Forecast minus 18Z 42h Forecast
GFS 0Z 48h Forecast minus 18Z 54h Forecast
Meridional component of Divergent Wind:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast
GFS 0Z 3h Forecast minus 18Z 9h Forecast
GFS 0Z 6h Forecast minus 18Z 12h Forecast
GFS 0Z 12h Forecast minus 18Z 18h Forecast
GFS 0Z 24h Forecast minus 18Z 30h Forecast
GFS 0Z 36h Forecast minus 18Z 42h Forecast
GFS 0Z 48h Forecast minus 18Z 54h Forecast
Root-Mean-Square:
Zonal component of Divergent Wind:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast
GFS 0Z 3h Forecast minus 18Z 9h Forecast
GFS 0Z 6h Forecast minus 18Z 12h Forecast
GFS 0Z 12h Forecast minus 18Z 18h Forecast
GFS 0Z 24h Forecast minus 18Z 30h Forecast
GFS 0Z 36h Forecast minus 18Z 42h Forecast
GFS 0Z 48h Forecast minus 18Z 54h Forecast
Meridional component of Divergent Wind:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast
GFS 0Z 3h Forecast minus 18Z 9h Forecast
GFS 0Z 6h Forecast minus 18Z 12h Forecast
GFS 0Z 12h Forecast minus 18Z 18h Forecast
GFS 0Z 24h Forecast minus 18Z 30h Forecast
GFS 0Z 36h Forecast minus 18Z 42h Forecast
GFS 0Z 48h Forecast minus 18Z 54h Forecast
Semi-deep tropics flights 0130 0131 0204 0215 0217 0218 0219 0304
4 different levels:
Average:
Zonal component of Divergent Wind:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast
GFS 0Z 3h Forecast minus 18Z 9h Forecast
GFS 0Z 6h Forecast minus 18Z 12h Forecast
GFS 0Z 12h Forecast minus 18Z 18h Forecast
GFS 0Z 24h Forecast minus 18Z 30h Forecast
GFS 0Z 36h Forecast minus 18Z 42h Forecast
GFS 0Z 48h Forecast minus 18Z 54h Forecast
Meridional component of Divergent Wind:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast
GFS 0Z 3h Forecast minus 18Z 9h Forecast
GFS 0Z 6h Forecast minus 18Z 12h Forecast
GFS 0Z 12h Forecast minus 18Z 18h Forecast
GFS 0Z 24h Forecast minus 18Z 30h Forecast
GFS 0Z 36h Forecast minus 18Z 42h Forecast
GFS 0Z 48h Forecast minus 18Z 54h Forecast
Root-Mean-Square:
Zonal component of Divergent Wind:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast
GFS 0Z 3h Forecast minus 18Z 9h Forecast
GFS 0Z 6h Forecast minus 18Z 12h Forecast
GFS 0Z 12h Forecast minus 18Z 18h Forecast
GFS 0Z 24h Forecast minus 18Z 30h Forecast
GFS 0Z 36h Forecast minus 18Z 42h Forecast
GFS 0Z 48h Forecast minus 18Z 54h Forecast
Meridional component of Divergent Wind:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast
GFS 0Z 3h Forecast minus 18Z 9h Forecast
GFS 0Z 6h Forecast minus 18Z 12h Forecast
GFS 0Z 12h Forecast minus 18Z 18h Forecast
GFS 0Z 24h Forecast minus 18Z 30h Forecast
GFS 0Z 36h Forecast minus 18Z 42h Forecast
GFS 0Z 48h Forecast minus 18Z 54h Forecast
