Contact Information
Mailing Address:
CIRES
University of Colorado
216 UCB
Boulder, CO 80309-0216

OR:
325 Broadway
R/PSD1
Boulder, CO 80305-3328
Voice: (303) 497-6172
Fax: (303) 497-6020
E-mail: lesley.l.smith@noaa.gov
PSD Staff Listing
 
PSD Staff List  »  Lesley L. Smith
Lesley L. Smith
Affiliation: CIRES
Phone: (303) 497-6172
E-mail: lesley.l.smith@noaa.gov
Mailing Address:
NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division
R/PSD1
325 Broadway
Boulder, CO 80305

Fax: (303) 497-6020

All plots here preliminary.
Regarding Arctic warming March 2017, Feb 2017, Jun 2017
New!

ESRL-CAM5 preliminary results:
where anomalies computed wrt 1980-1989 factual run

ECHAM5 results:

 

 

 


Re. Figure 1:

Re. Figure 4:
with respect to amip_obs_rf 1980-1989 means

Re. Figure 6:
Anomalies with respect to amip_obs_rf climatology:

Annual T2m 65-90N CESM1 LENS where anomalies computed wrt 1980-1989:

Pan-Arctic Ice-Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) Data:
with 1980-1989 climatology:


with 1979-1989 climatology:


------------------------------------------------------------------------

These are all anomalies:

ECHAM5

F2000 data divided into 5 pieces:

CAM

CESM1

Re. Figure 1:
Weighted area average of T2m 65-90N: Reanalysis average: 3.135974 deg C
Weighted area average of T2m 65-90N: ECHAM5 average: 2.363974 deg C

Re. Figure 4:
with respect to amip_obs_rf 1980-1989 means


------------------------

These are 'anomalies', i.e. differences of the full fields:

Re. NEW Figure 5: a.) factual minus counterfactual b.) factual minus clim_polar
c.) (factual minus counterfactual) minus (factual minus clim_polar)

Re. Figure 5: a.) factual minus counterfactual b.) factual minus clim_polar c.) 1m ice minus 2m ice


where the weighted area average of above differences are: a.)2.463562 deg C; b.) 1.346158 deg C; c.) 0.710208 deg C

These are anomaly differences:

Re. Figure 5: a.) factual minus counterfactual b.) factual minus clim_polar c.) clim_polar minus counterfactual d.) 1m ice minus 2m ice


--------------------------

These are all anomalies:

Re. Figure 6:
Anomalies with respect to amip_obs_rf climatology:

Anomalies with respect to respective climatologies:


-----------------

These are all anomalies:

Re. Figure S2:


------------------------------------------------------------------------

   

   

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Vertical structure
Up to 100mb

where no climatologies subtracted for above 2 plots.
--------------------------------------



where for the 1m_ice case, the amip_obs_rf 1980-1989 climatology was removed.
For comparison, ERA-Interim

Higher than 100mb

where no climatologies subtracted for above 2 plots.
----



where for the 1m_ice case, the amip_obs_rf 1980-1989 climatology was removed.
For comparison, ERA-Interim

----------------------
Comparing different experiments
 
where above plots created using all 30 ensemble members.
-------------------



---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Polar anomaly maps (for single experiments)


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For Reference, Reanalyses polar anomaly maps


-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Time series

Anomalies (1980-1989 climatologies removed)

Mean of standard deviations among above obs_rf runs=0.277927 oC
Standard Deviation of ensemble average obs_rf above=0.599255 oC
2016 maps corresponding to top 3 obs_rf ensemble members above


pdfs of above 2016 anomalies

Time series anomaly differences

Time series differences

Time series ECHAM5 compared with avg Reanalysis
   
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For reference, Reanalyses anomalies