PSD Experimental Climate/Weather Forecasts

PSD generates experimental forecasts on time-scales of weeks to seasons as part of its research mission. The forecasts and associated information such as verifications are available on the following webpages. It is planned that these forecasts will eventually be transitioned to operational mode.
DescriptionSample Product
Annually-averaged global surface temperature for the upcoming decade
A empirical dynamical technique, linear inverse modeling (LIM), is used to calculate global averages of surface temperature over the next decade.
decadal LIM Forecast
Arctic sea-ice experimental forecast
Experimental, sea ice forecasts produced from a fully coupled ~9km ice(CICE5)-ocean(POP2)-land(CLM4.5)-atmosphere(WRF3.5) model called RASM-ESRL. The model is initialized with the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) analyses, CRYOSAT2 sea ice thickness, and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) sea ice concentrations. The model is forced at the lateral boundaries by 3-hourly GFS forecasts of winds, temperature, and water vapor.
5day sea ice snow
ESRL/PSD GEFS Reforecast Version 2
The ESRL/PSD 2nd-generation Reforecast Project has produced a dataset of historical weather forecasts generated with a fixed numerical model, using the 2012 version of NCEP's Global Ensemble Forecasting System (GEFS). This Reforecast V2 dataset consists of an 11-member ensemble of forecasts, produced every day from 00 UTC initial conditions from Dec 1984 to present. The horizontal resolution of GEFS is T254 (about 50 km) out to 8 days, and T190 (about 70 km) from 8-16 days. Real-time forecasts are ongoing. Probabilistic forecasts of 6-10 day and week 2 500mb height, 250mb winds, 850mb temperature and precipitation are provided.Prediction maps show upper and lower tercile anomalies, average ensemble values and verifications.
80mb Temperature probability forecast
Linear Inverse Modeling Medium Range (2-6 weeks) Forecasts
A empirical dynamical technique, coupled linear inverse modeling (C-LIM), is used to calculate empirical medium-range forecasts of tropical convection, wind, and SST pentads.
LIM Forecast
Global Tropical SST forecasts
A empirical dynamical technique, linear inverse modeling (LIM), is used to calculate forecasts regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean SSTs ("ENSO"), the tropical Atlantic Ocean SSTs, and the tropical Indian Ocean and the North Atlantic. LIM SST Forecasts are for 3 months to 12 months from the current date. Forecasts are presented as maps of global tropical SST forecasts and timeseries plots that include forecast history and verification.
Teleconnection forecasts
The ESRL/PSD ensemble is used to make daily forecasts of teleconnection indices (PNA, NAO, WPO, and EPO).