Experimental Tropical SST Forecast Products

These experimental sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts are made using the Linear Inverse Modeling (LIM) technique and are a useful indicator of the status of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Updates are usually available by the 10th of each month.

Timeseries

Atlantic Indices
Pacific Indices
Niño3.4 SST Anomaly Forecasts
Niño4 SST Anomaly Forecasts
Caribbean Index SST Anomaly Forecasts (CAR)
Hawaiian Index SST Anomaly Forecasts
North Tropical Atlantic Index SST Anomaly Forecasts (NTA)
South Tropical Atlantic Index SST Anomaly Forecasts (STA)
Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Indices

Maps

Current Projection of SST onto ENSO Optimal Structure
Forecast Maps of Global Tropics SSTs (totals; numerical values available)
Forecast Maps of Global Tropics SSTs (anomalies; numerical values available)

Citing

If you acquire LIM Pacific SST Anomalies and PDO Forecasts products from our website, we ask that you acknowledge us in your use of the data. For example:

LIM SST Anomalies Forecast data provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Science Division and CIRES CU, Boulder, Colorado, from their website at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/.

Example of timeseries of Pacific indices
More About SST LIM
Complete Forecast Description