ESRL/PSD Seminar Series

Abstract

Extreme precipitation events and associated flood-related risks can result in loss of human life and costly damage to property, civil infrastructure, and agriculture. Improved understanding, and in turn, enhanced anticipation of such events offers great potential benefit to public safety and societal risk management.



On shorter ("weather") time scales, quantitative precipitation forecasts of heavy precipitation in particular continue to be a relative weakness for both numerical models and human forecasters alike. Considering longer ("climate") timescales, understanding the role of global climate change on local weather extremes remains a persistent challenge for research, decision-making, and stakeholder communities. On all timescales, understanding how to extract, process, display, and communicate the most useful parts of model forecasts and projections remains a salient problem across many environmental sectors and applications.



In this talk, an overview of a few key examples of use-inspired research focusing on extreme precipitation and flood risk in both the Front Range of Colorado and the Southeast U.S. will be presented. Discussion will emphasize how continued work along these themes can better address user needs, improve understanding of critical physical processes, connect weather and climate time scales, and encourage cross- division, lab, and agency partnerships.