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PSD Hosts 40th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop

Denver skyline

October 21, 2015

NOAA's 40th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop will be held in Denver, Colorado on 26-29 October 2015. The workshop is being hosted by ESRL's Physical Sciences Division (PSD) and both co-organized and co-sponsored with the Climate Prediction Center of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Climate Services Division of the National Weather Service.

The workshop will address the status and prospects for advancing climate prediction, monitoring, and diagnostics, and will focus on five major themes:

  • The evolution of climate diagnostics and prediction over the last 40 years.
  • Extremes and risk management: knowledge and products to connect the diagnostics and prediction of extremes with preparedness and adaptation strategies.
  • The prediction, attribution, and analysis of drought and pluvial in the framework of climate variability and change.
  • Diagnostics and prediction of high impact extreme climate events.
  • Prediction and attribution of Arctic climate variability, and the linkages of Arctic variability to lower latitudes.

A number of PSD personnel are involved in the workshop proceedings:

Oral Presentations

  • Michael AlexanderThe Pacific Decadal Oscillation Revisited
  • Henry DiazClimate Extremes Past and Present: A 40-Year Perspective (Session and Banquet presenter)
  • Henry DiazSpeaker at Workshop Banquet
  • Randall DoleFactors Contributing to Regional and Seasonal Trends in Temperature Extremes
  • Michael HobbinsThe California Drought as seen through the eyes of EDDI (the Evaporative Demand Drought Index)
  • Andrew HoellThe Subseasonal Effect of Strong El Niño Events on North American Climate
  • Martin HoerlingReflection and Re-Visitation on Prospects for Seasonal Climate Prediction
  • Martin HoerlingApproaches for estimating seasonal predictability: Where are we with current estimates?
  • Srijita Jana and Andrea RaySpace-time variability of summer hydroclimatology and extremes in the Southwest U.S
  • Sanjiv KumarEvaluation of the 20th century Temperature Trends and Persistence in CMIP3, CMIP5 and Large Ensemble climate simulations and its relevance for regional climate predictability
  • Ben Livneh and Martin HoerlingThe Physics of Great Plains Drought, Its Predictability, and Its Changed Risk in a Warming World
  • Kelly MahoneyClimatology of Extreme Daily Precipitation in Colorado and Its Diverse Spatial and Seasonal Variability
  • Matt NewmanDoes recent variation in Tropical Pacific seasonal forecast skill represent base state-related change in ENSO predictability, or just dumb luck?
  • Judith PerlwitzLinking Extreme Weather Events and Extreme ENSO States
  • Catherine Smith, Gilbert Compo, and Prashant SardeshmukhA web-based tool to examine probability distributions of weather and climate data
  • Amy SolomonShort-term sea ice forecasts with the RASM-ESRL coupled model: A testbed for improving simulations of ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions in the marginal ice zone
  • Lantao SunIs a Warm Arctic, Cold Continent a Fingerprint Pattern of Climate Change?
  • Robert WebbWorkshop Welcoming Remarks
  • Klaus WolterLessons learned from seven years of Water Year outlooks in California

Poster Presentations

  • Leslie M. Hartten and Cecile PenlandInvestigations of the Madden Julian Oscillation using Multivariate Principal Oscillation Analysis
  • Michael HobbinsOptimization of Evaporative Demand Models for Seasonal Drought Forecasting
  • Don MurrayNOAA’s Facility for Climate Assessments (FACTS): A Web-based Resource for Assessing Drought and Climate Variability
  • Matt Newman, Yan Wang, and Ben LivnehSeasonal and spatial dependence of soil moisture memory over North America
  • Lesley SmithFactors Contributing to the Extreme Texas Rains of Spring 2015 in the Context of Climate Change
  • Klaus WolterHow unusual was the cold winter of 2013-14 in the Upper Midwest?