This webpage has been discontinued, effective 1 Oct 2017.
Experimental Tornado (F1+) Probability Forecasts Based on GEFS Reforecasts, Version 2
This page presents experimental tornado probability forecasts (F1 and greater) produced with a rank-analog technique developed by F. Alvarez of St. Louis Univ. as part of his Ph.D. dissertation research. His approach follows that of Hamill and Whitaker (2006). More detailed information is available here.
These forecasts will usually (but not always) be updated by 16 UTC each day. They likely will not be available as consistently as operational products from the National Weather Service.
Please note that this is an experimental forecast product, and is not an official forecast of NOAA or its National Weather Service.
We welcome feedback on this product. Email comments to: firstname.lastname@example.org .