In-Depth Forecast Evaluations

In-depth forecast evaluations are performed in order to assess the quality and accuracy of an experimental aviation weather product that is expected to transition into NWS or FAA operations. The evaluations are done independently of the product developers and tests are performed that allow a measure of forecast quality as it compares to an operational forecast standard. The evaluations are conducted in the context of the products use in making operational decisions that may be affected by weather.

The Forecast Impact and Quality Assessment Section staff has over 15 years of experience in evaluating weather products for transition to operations. Results from the evaluations are represented to oversight transition committees as guidance for whether the new weather product is ready for transition and provides forecast improvement over the operational standard. Publications can be found at the following web site http://esrl.noaa.gov/fiqas/publications.html

Recent Evaluations:

Forecast Evaluation of the World Area Forecast System Global Icing Products (2009)

Objective:  To assess the WAFC Washington and WAFC London global icing products in the context of operational fueling decisions for oceanic air flights.  Performance was compared to the operational Significant Weather Charts. 

  • Presentation of results
  • Report

Forecast Intercomparison of the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product and the Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP) Product (2009)

Objective:  The objective is to evaluate if the CCFP/LAMP Hybrid product is better than CCFP alone in the context of strategic planning for FAA operations.  The forecast structure, porosity of convection, amount of convection, and location of convection are assessed.

  • Verification Plan
  • Presentation of results
  • Report

Forecast Evaluation of the Collaborative Storm-Prediction for Aviation (CoSPA) Algorithm (2008)

Objective:  Provide an initial investigation into the quality of the CoSPA algorithm.

    • Specifically describe the primarily characteristics of the algorithm, Provided diagnostic feedback information to CoSPA developers for forecast improvement
    • Introduce verification approaches to be used in ‘09 study
    • Provide the basis for constructing a baseline-of-performance for CoSPA in the ‘09 convective season
  • Verification Plan
  • Presentation of results

Forecast Assessment for the New York TRACON Convective Forecast Product (2008)

Objective:   The objective is to study the performance of the Enhanced Convective Forecast (ECF) and its associated model product, the WRF Composite Reflectivity, during the New York 2008 Convective Weather Project. The evaluation compares the performance of the ECF and WRF directly against that of the Collaborative Convective Forecast Product (CCFP), which is the current operational baseline. Additionally, the analysis evaluates the quality of the experimental products when used to supplement CCFP as outlined in the project’s concept of use. 

  • Verification Plan
  • Report

Forecast Assessment of the Forecast Icing Potential Algorithm (2008)

Objective:  To assess the performance of the Forecast Icing Potential (FIP) product.  Attributes of the forecast that were evaluated include icing probability, icing severity, and supercooled large drops (SLD). The FAA has designated that FIP, when certified for operational use, will be used as a supplemental product, which requires it to be used for flight planning purposes only in conjunction with the operational icing Airmen’s Meteorological Information (AIRMET) issuances.

  • Report

NCVA

NCVA Information