The graphics below are designed to forecast the presence and strength of Atmospheric Rivers using data from the NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS), North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM), and Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) models. The GFS products are produced at the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E). The GEFS products are produced by Dr. Jason Cordeira at Plymouth State University as a cooperative effort with CW3E. More information on these products and other AR forecasting tools can be found on the CW3E page.
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The above images display the magnitude, probability, and timing of AR conditions along the U.S. West Coast and inland from the GEFS model. Hover mouse over an image name to see the graphic, or click to get more information on the plot. To see how each forecast type has changed over the previous seven days click on the dProp/dT under the image title. These plots are created by Jason Cordeira, Plymouth State Univeristy.
Hover mouse cursor over a forecast lead time to see both images or click to open.
The above images display the 20 members of the GFS Ensemble; each thumbnail shows IVT (kg m-1 s-1) magnitude shaded according to scale and IVT vectors.
The above images display the probability of IVT exceeding 250 kg m-1 s-1 based on the 20 members of the GFS ensemble and the IVT vectors from the control forecast.