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ESRL/PSD Seminar Series

The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX)

Kathy Pegion
Dept of Atmospheric, Oceanic, and Earth Sciences and Center for Ocean Land Atmosphere Studies, George Mason University

Abstract


The subseasonal experiment (SubX) is a multi-model subseasonal prediction experiment. Seven global models are producing seventeen years of retrospective (re-) forecasts and one year of weekly real-time forecasts. Re-forecasts follow a protocol that requires weekly initializations and forecasts out to at least 32-days. The re-forecasts are archived at the IRI Data Library for research on subseasonal predictability and predictions. Real-time forecasts are produced weekly, beginning July 7, 2017. Each modeling group provides their forecasts, following the same protocol as the re-forecasts, to the NOAA/NWS/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center as guidance for their week 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlooks. These real-time forecasts are also archived for research use at the IRI Data Library. This presentation will provide an overview of SubX, including a description of the datasets, preliminary evaluation of skill and model biases and an example of forecast evaluations of hurricane Harvey. Future plans for SubX predictability and prediction research will be discussed as well as collaborations with other community S2S efforts.


Tuesday Jan 16, 2018
2:00 pm
2A305
Seminar Coordinator: Madeline Sturgill (Madeline.Sturgill@noaa.gov)

SECURITY: If you are coming from outside the NOAA campus, you must stop at the Visitor Center to obtain a vistor badge. Please allow 10 extra minutes for this procedure. If you are a foreign national coming from outside the NOAA campus, please email the seminar coordinator at least 48 hours prior to the seminar to provide information required for security purposes.