Modeling Model Uncertainty due to Unresolved Dynamics

Jeffery Whitaker

Tuesday, May 16, 2017, 2:00 pm
DSRC Room 2A305


Abstract

Upscale energy transfers from unresolved scales to resolved scales imply that dynamical tendencies in a numerical model are uncertain, even if the governing equations and initial conditions are perfectly known and accurately solved. This missing energy cascade often results in under-dispersive ensemble forecasts. In this talk I explore methods for representing uncertainty in resolved dynamics due to unresolved turbulent cascades in a simple model of quasi-geostrophic turbulence.



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Seminar Contact: richard.lataitis@noaa.gov