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ESRL/PSD Seminar Series

Improved forecast of coastal convective clouds and precipitation in the AROME-model using stochastic cellular automata

Lisa Bengtsson
Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

Abstract


In Scandinavia, convective clouds and snow showers are often present over the North Sea during the fall, winter and spring, when there is cold air advection from the Arctic region in over the relatively warm sea surface. In these situations precipitation is often generated from relatively shallow convective clouds, which organizes and propagates in over the coast. This type of weather situation is not very well forecasted by the convection permitting NWP model used for operational weather-forecasts in the Scandinavian countries; HARMONIE-AROME. This is mainly due to the fact that convective precipitation is diagnosed over sea, but stops sharply along the coast line where the surface fluxes are reduced. In this seminar I will present attempts to improve such forecasts of coastal precipitation, addressing both choices made in operational NWP (such as size of domain and lateral boundary coupling strategies) as well as more novel ideas of improving convective organization using self-organized patterns from a stochastic cellular automata.


Monday Mar 20, 2017
2:00 pm
1D403
Seminar Coordinator: Madeline Sturgill (Madeline.Sturgill@noaa.gov)

SECURITY: If you are coming from outside the NOAA campus, you must stop at the Visitor Center to obtain a vistor badge. Please allow 10 extra minutes for this procedure. If you are a foreign national coming from outside the NOAA campus, please email the seminar coordinator at least 48 hours prior to the seminar to provide information required for security purposes.