How bad can a one-hour forecast be?
Tom Hamill
PSL Forecast and Modeling Development Team
Tuesday, Apr 19, 2016, 2:00 pm
DSRC Room 2A305
Abstract
If the variable is surface temperature, then it will be shown that the answer can be "pretty inaccurate." This FLASH seminar will demonstrate how we come to this conclusion. We compare one-hour forecasts of surface temperature to what can be obtained from a very simple statistical model, a persistence of the current analyzed deviation from the climatology (climatology is permitted here to vary with location, with day of the year, and hour of the day). At observation locations, a simple statistical model is shown to have roughly half the error of the dynamical forecast model. This is likely due to the significant challenges in modeling the surface energy balance, which affects surface temperature. Future directions and the implications for statistical post-processing will also be discussed.
You must provide an accepted form of identification at the Visitor Center to obtain a vistor badge. Security personnel also inspect vehicles prior to entrance of the site. Please allow extra time for these procedures.
After receiving a badge, you must arrive at the DSRC Lobby at least 5 minutes before the seminar starts to meet your security escort. If you arrive after that time, you will not be allowed entry.
Foreign Nationals: Please email the seminar contact at least 48 hours prior to the seminar to provide additional information required for security purposes.
Seminar Contact: Richard.Lataitis@noaa.gov