ESRL/PSD Seminar Series
Ensemble-variational data assimilation for sea ice prediction.
Anna Shlyaeva
Environment Canada
Abstract
A short range high resolution sea ice prediction system has been developed at Environment Canada. This talk will describe the first steps towards transitioning it from a simple deterministic 3DVar data assimilation system into an ensemble data assimilation system based on an ensemble of EnVar analyses. First, different strategies for simulating model uncertainties during the ensemble forecast step will be described and evaluated based on the experiments with an ensemble of 3DVar analyses. These strategies range from perturbing parameters within the sea ice model to completely disabling the sea ice dynamics or thermodynamics in some of the ensemble members. Second, results from idealized experiments with EnVar analyses using ensemble covariances from the first experiment will be presented to show the potential improvement of sea ice analyses from using ensemble covariances in sea ice data assimilation.
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