PSD Staff List  »  Lesley L. Smith
Lesley L. Smith – Research Associate
Attribution and Predictability Assessments Team
Affiliation:
Phone: (303) 497-6172
E-mail: lesley.l.smith@noaa.gov
Mailing Address:
NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division
R/PSD1
325 Broadway
Boulder, CO 80305

Fax: (303) 497-6020

All plots preliminary. Right click to see bigger versions.
Back to main Smith page.

New Newer plots at top of page, older plots at bottom.

Tests related to El Nino Rapid Response GFS Data

plots related to possible BAMS paper here.

plots of Individual mission days here.

plots of Composites of flight days below

plots of Composites of 2016 non-flight days here

plots of Composites of flight days normalized by nonflight days here

original plots of Composites of Divergent wind components here

plots of 'precampaign' days 20151201-20160215, excluding flight days here.
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Divergent wind for 20151201-20160215 inclusive:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

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All divergent wind speed results on this page involve calculations with the zonal and meridional components of the divergent winds.

For calculations utilizing the divergent wind speed first go here.

Divergent Wind Speed 200 cases of 19 random 'precampaign' days 20151201-20160215, inclusive
Upper Decile mean GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

Lower Decile mean GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

Divergent Wind Speed 200 cases of 19 random 'precampaign' days 20151201-20160215, inclusive

Upper Decile root mean square GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

Divergent Wind Speed all 'precampaign' days 20151201-20160215, inclusive
mean
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Divergent Wind Speed all 'precampaign' days 20151201-20160215, inclusive
root mean square
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here
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Zonal Wind 200 cases of 19 random 'precampaign' days 20151201-20160215, inclusive
Upper Decile mean GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

Lower Decile mean GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

Zonal Wind 200 cases of 19 random 'precampaign' days 20151201-20160215, inclusive

Upper Decile root mean square GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

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Meridional Wind 200 cases of 19 random 'precampaign' days 20151201-20160215, inclusive
Upper Decile mean GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

Lower Decile mean GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

Meridional Wind 200 cases of 19 random 'precampaign' days 20151201-20160215, inclusive

Upper Decile root mean square GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

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Zonal Wind all 'precampaign' days 20151201-20160215, inclusive
root mean square
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

mean
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here
----------------------------------

Meridional Wind all 'precampaign' days 20151201-20160215, inclusive
root mean square
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

mean
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here
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Zonal Wind all 19 flight days
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here
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Meridional Wind all 19 flight days
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here
-----------------------------

divergent wind speed all 19 flight days
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here
________________________________________________________________________________________________

Bootstrap Estimates of Deciles

Method 1: non-flight days within campaign period 20160121-20160331
Zonal Wind F0Z0-F18Z6

Upper Decile: these decile calcs done with 200 samples of 10 random nonflight days.
Note: a nonflight day could include Kiritimati data days

Upper Decile:

Lower Decile:


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Meridional Wind F0Z0-F18Z6

Upper Decile: these decile calcs done with 200 samples of 10 random nonflight days.
Note: a nonflight day could include Kiritimati data days

Upper Decile:

Lower Decile:


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Temperature F0Z0-F18Z6

Upper Decile: these decile calcs done with 200 samples of 10 random nonflight days.

Upper Decile:

Lower Decile:


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Composites of Differences for Flight Days

Deep tropics flights 0122 0126 0127 0203 0213 0216 0227 0228 0301 0302

Average

Temperature
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Zonal Wind:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Meridional Wind:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Relative Humidity:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Height
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

-----------------------

Root-Mean-Square:

Temperature:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Zonal Wind:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Meridional Wind:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Relative Humidity:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Height
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Semi-deep tropics flights 0130 0131 0204 0215 0217 0218 0219 0304

different levels:

Average:

Temperature:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Zonal Wind:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Meridional Wind:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Relative Humidity:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Height
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

---------------------

Root-Mean-Square:

Temperature:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Zonal Wind:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Meridional Wind:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Relative Humidity:
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here

Height
GFS 0Z 0h Forecast minus 18Z 6h Forecast

other hours here