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All plots here preliminary. Right click to see bigger images.
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ENSO-region SSTs Causality On US Precipitation
Can we prove causality between ENSO-region SSTs and U.S. Precipitation?
Following X. San Liang "Unraveling the cause-effect relation between time series" Phys. Rev. E, 90, 052150 (2014)
Note this is a maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the information flow under the assumption of a linear model with additive noise.
image from David Schneider, Climate Data Guide, NCAR
Information flow from Pacific SSTs to U.S. Precipitation