PSD Staff List  »  Lesley L. Smith
Lesley L. Smith
Affiliation: CIRES
Phone: (303) 497-6172
Mailing Address:
NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division
325 Broadway
Boulder, CO 80305

Fax: (303) 497-6020

All plots here preliminary. Right click to see bigger images.
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ENSO-region SSTs Causality On US Precipitation


Can we prove causality between ENSO-region SSTs and U.S. Precipitation?

Following X. San Liang "Unraveling the cause-effect relation between time series" Phys. Rev. E, 90, 052150 (2014)
Note this is a maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the information flow under the assumption of a linear model with additive noise.

image from David Schneider, Climate Data Guide, NCAR

Information flow from Pacific SSTs to U.S. Precipitation

Different Eras