NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division
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Extreme Precipitation in CaliforniaAll plots here are preliminary.
Using concatenated 50-member ensemble CFSv2 AMIP runs 1979-2013:
95th Percentile Global Precipitation: daily case:
Zooming in on Northern California:
Number of times the 95th Percentile is exceeded per year per 50 concatenated runs:
Using the concatenated 50-member ensemble we also computed the 99th Percentile Precip. Then, for each run, we composited the cases that were equal to or exceeded this 99th percentile. The mean and standard deviations of these 50 composites are below:
As a check, mean daily precipitation:
Notice the contour levels are 4 times smaller here than above.
95th Percentile California Precipitation multi-day cases:
Notice the contour levels below vary: