PSD Staff List  »  Lesley L. Smith
Lesley L. Smith – Research Associate
Attribution and Predictability Assessments Team
Affiliation: CIRES
Phone: (303) 497-6172
E-mail: lesley.l.smith@noaa.gov
Mailing Address:
NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division
R/PSD1
325 Broadway
Boulder, CO 80305

Fax: (303) 497-6020

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All plots preliminary.
Right click to see bigger versions.

New Most recent plots first.

Drought Risk in the U.S. Great Plains

original version of this page here

21st Century Projections of Evaporative Demand

5 models: GFDL-ESM2M, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-MR, HadGEM2-ES

full resolution and down-scaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)

Running 2 week accumulations

Exceedance Probabilities:
Ratios 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era for exceedance probabilities

Great Plains Differences between 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era in exceedance probabilities, where .1% is the most unlikely (largest ETr) and 99.9% is the most likely (smallest ETr), expressed as a percentage, i.e. 100.*(era2-era1)/era1
header refers to the exceedance probability


ASCII file cdf.output.diffs.2week.txt

Ratios of 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era exceedance probabilities
header refers to the exceedance probability


ASCII file cdf.output.ratio.2week.txt
above tables for MACA cases only

2-week Quantiles:


ASCII file quantiles76.output.txt


ASCII file quantiles36.output.txt

Differences of Quantiles:


ASCII file quantiles.diffs.output.txt

Probability Density Functions



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Running 90-day accumulations

Exceedance Probabilities
Differences between 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era in exceedance probabilites, where .1% is the most unlikely (largest ETr) and 99.9% is the most likely (smallest ETr), expressed as a percentage, i.e. 100.*(era2-era1)/era1
header refers to the exceedance probability


ASCII file cdf.output.diffs.90day.txt

Ratios of 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era exceedance probabilities
header refers to the exceedance probability


ASCII file cdf.output.ratio.90day.txt
above tables for MACA cases only

90-day Quantiles:


ASCII file quantiles76.output.90d.txt


ASCII file quantiles36.output.90d.txt

Differences of Quantiles:


ASCII file quantiles.diffs.output.90d.txt

probability density functions: