PSD Staff List  »  Lesley L. Smith
Lesley L. Smith – Research Associate
Attribution and Predictability Assessments Team
Affiliation: CIRES
Phone: (303) 497-6172
E-mail: lesley.l.smith@noaa.gov
Mailing Address:
NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division
R/PSD1
325 Broadway
Boulder, CO 80305

Fax: (303) 497-6020

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All plots preliminary.
Right click to see bigger versions.

New Most recent plots first.

Drought Risk in the U.S. Great Plains

original version of this page here

Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble (Lens) data from NCAR

CESM LENS (red) and NCEI-5km (black), upper and lower limits are upper and lower deciles OR minimum and maximum
anomaly reference period: 1920-2000



above ncei line smoothed by 20-year running mean

above ncei line smoothed by 10-year running mean

CESM LENS (blue) and NCEI-5km (black)




CESM LENS (brown)




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Number of dry days for three different Junes, Sample Runs
       
       
           

National Centers for Environment Information (NCEI) data

   

           

   


Station Data

Regarding the number of dry days:
For 'dry' ~ 0.1 inches precip:

 

For 'dry' ~ 0 inches precip:

NLDAS Forcing data

NLDAS Data

Noah Data sample files

Mosaic Data sample files

VIC Data sample files

Forcing Data sample files

NLDAS Soil Moisture data

Sample plots

Mosaic: comparing monthly and daily maps

top 10 cm

top 1 m

Noah: comparing monthly and daily maps

top 10 cm

top 1 m

VIC: comparing monthly and daily maps

top 10 cm

top 1 m

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21st Century Projections of Evaporative Demand

5 models: GFDL-ESM2M, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-MR, HadGEM2-ES

full resolution and down-scaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)

MACA only plots:

Running 2 week accumulations

Exceedance Probabilities:

Ratios 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era for exceedance probabilities

Focusing on the Great Plains:

Great Plains Differences between 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era in exceedance probabilities, where .1% is the most unlikely (largest ETr) and 99.9% is the most likely (smallest ETr), expressed as a percentage, i.e. 100.*(era2-era1)/era1

header refers to the exceedance probability

ASCII file cdf.output.diffs.2week.txt

Ratios of 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era exceedance probabilities

header refers to the exceedance probability

ASCII file cdf.output.ratio.2week.txt

above tables for MACA cases only

Plots

2-week Quantiles:


ASCII file quantiles76.output.txt


ASCII file quantiles36.output.txt

Differences of Quantiles:


ASCII file quantiles.diffs.output.txt

Probability Density Functions

Running 90-day accumulations

Exceedance Probabilities

90-day Quantiles:


ASCII file quantiles76.output.90d.txt


ASCII file quantiles36.output.90d.txt

Differences of Quantiles:


ASCII file quantiles.diffs.output.90d.txt

probability density functions: