**Attribution and Predictability Assessments Team**

**Affiliation:**CIRES

**Phone:**(303) 497-6172

**E-mail:**lesley.l.smith@noaa.gov

**Mailing Address:**

NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division

R/PSD1

325 Broadway

Boulder, CO 80305

**Fax:**(303) 497-6020

Back to main Smith page

All plots preliminary.

Right click to see bigger versions.

New Most recent plots first.

# Drought Risk in the U.S. Great Plains

original version of this page here

21st Century Projections of Evaporative Demand

5 models: GFDL-ESM2M, CNRM-CM5, CanESM2, IPSL-CM5A-MR, HadGEM2-ES

full resolution and down-scaled Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs (MACA)

# Running **2 week** accumulations

Exceedance Probabilities:

Ratios 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era for exceedance probabilities

Great Plains Differences between 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era in exceedance probabilities, where .1% is the most unlikely (largest ETr) and 99.9% is the most likely (smallest ETr), expressed as a percentage, i.e. 100.*(era2-era1)/era1

header refers to the exceedance probability

ASCII file cdf.output.diffs.2week.txt

Ratios of 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era exceedance probabilities

header refers to the exceedance probability

ASCII file cdf.output.ratio.2week.txt

above tables for MACA cases only

2-week Quantiles:

ASCII file quantiles76.output.txt

ASCII file quantiles36.output.txt

Differences of Quantiles:

ASCII file quantiles.diffs.output.txt

Probability Density Functions

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

# Running **90-day** accumulations

Exceedance Probabilities

Differences between 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era in exceedance probabilites, where .1% is the most unlikely (largest ETr) and 99.9% is the most likely (smallest ETr), expressed as a percentage, i.e. 100.*(era2-era1)/era1

header refers to the exceedance probability

ASCII file cdf.output.diffs.90day.txt

Ratios of 2036-2065 era and 1976-2005 era exceedance probabilities

header refers to the exceedance probability

ASCII file cdf.output.ratio.90day.txt

above tables for MACA cases only

90-day Quantiles:

ASCII file quantiles76.output.90d.txt

ASCII file quantiles36.output.90d.txt

Differences of Quantiles:

ASCII file quantiles.diffs.output.90d.txt

probability density functions: