Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and CU CIRES Forecast of Nino4 in Global Tropics Domain

Predictions of Niño 3.4 region

nino4 region definition
Region forecasted highlighted above in yellow.

Predictions of Niño 4 SSTA (red solid line) and verification (blue solid line). Dashed lines indicate one standard deviation confidence intervals appropriate to the LIM forecast. Niño 4 index was calculated in the area 6N-6S, 160E-150W.

Tables (Missing values indicated by -999.000)
*  Verification history
*  Forecasts, Lead = 3 months
*  Forecasts, Lead = 6 months
*  Forecasts, Lead = 9 months
*  Forecasts, Lead = 12 months

nin4gl.plots

Time series of actual forecast errors normalized by one standard deviation of the expected forecast uncertainty given a perfect model. Blue line: Lead = 3 months. Red line: Lead = 6 months. Black line: Lead = 9 months. Yellow line: Lead = 12 months. Given the dynamical assumptions of the prediction model, forecast errors are Gaussian, and the horizontal lines indicate 95% confidence interval.

errn4gl.plots

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Citing

If you acquire LIM Pacific SST Anomalies and PDO Forecasts products from our website, we ask that you acknowledge us in your use of the data. For example:

LIM SST Anomalies Forecast data provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Science Division and CIRES CU, Boulder, Colorado, from their website at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/.