El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

Forecasts

The ability to forecast El Niño and La Niña events is extremely important as these events tend to be associated with consistent climate variations in the tropics and can even influence the atmosphere around the world. There are two types of forecasts: those obtained from various ocean–atmosphere models and those obtained from statistical models. These models vary in their skill and sometimes can even do better during certain phases of ENSO than others. Forecasters try to take all this in account when making predictions.


Official NOAA ENSO Forecasts


PSD Experimental ENSO Forecasts

Linear Inverse Modeling SST/ENSO Forecast

Experimental statistical forecasts of SST anomalies based on current initial conditions. SST data used in these forecasts have been provided by NCEP, courtesy of R. W. Reynolds. Contour interval is 0.3 degrees C.
Linear Inverse Modeling Seasonal Plot

Experimental Tropical C-LIM "Coupled" LIM Forecast

CLIM is user to create forecasts of Tropical Convection, Wind, and SST for out to 200 days.
plot lag4

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