Figure 1: Forecast Events Awareness Tool (FEAT) application.
At a glance, the red grid boxes (right panel)
get your attention to a possible significant weather event.
When you click on a specific Event name label, like 'Dense Fog', an information window will pop up. Rules defining significant weather events are used to process the forecast models grids. When the rule is satisfied, the grid box has a distinct color indication.
Figure 1.1: Event database details can be displayed, including the rule used to evaluate the gridded data.
The grid boxes displayed in the right panel are colored and will display a brief summary in a pop up window when touched with the mouse cursor, showing more detail like how many models predicted the event, or the percentage of grid points that met the criteria. The dominant color of the grids on the right is also used to color the background of Event name label (left) associated with the row.
Figure 1.2: Event detail summary can be displayed, for each grid box.
The purpose and function of FEAT is to alert the forecaster to weather events of significance within the forecast grids. The application window shows the occurrence of significant weather events with color. The evaluation approach below is to calculate the percentage of grid points that met the criteria are compared to the total grid points possible. This indicates the probability of the occurrence of a significant event on a scale of 100%. In this GFE Procedure its referred to as 'Percentage of Points'.
Figure 1.3: The small boxes, representing gridded forecast data, show areas of the probability of significant weather events occurring.
The software is experimental and has two (2) separate components. One
part is a software package that runs outside of CAVE via a cron script
to generate Event data multiple times per day. The second part is
a set of code that works within CAVE as a GFE Procedure. An
installation script is available.
See 2) Software Installation Guide
Once FEAT is installed, and the event generation script runs and successfully creates data, from the GFE Populate menu, select 'ForecastEventsAwareness'.
Figure 2: How to start the GFE Procedure: Forecast Events Awareness Tool (FEAT).
The File lists the options to read Case Event data or Realtime Event data (default).
The Zoom has the option to expand or compress the data that is displayed within the application window.
The Category option simply shows the event category of
interest. For example, select the 'Winter' option to list all
winter-related weather events.
The Monitor option is more complicated and the core of FEAT. It is explained in the one of the next sections.
The Priority List option allows listing and sorting of the weather events by their priority rank.
Figure 3: FEAT menu bar showing main menu and sub-menu options: File, Zoom, Category, Monitor, and Priority.
FEAT alerts the forecaster to weather events of significance within the forecast grids. The percentage of grid points that meet the criteria are compared to the total grid points possible. This indicates the probability of the occurrence of a significant event on a scale of 100%. In this GFE Procedure its referred to as 'Percentage of Points'. See Figure 1.3.
Figure 4: FEAT default mode: Percent of Points to bring attention to any significant events in the forecast area.
The option 'Percentage of Models' shows how many models predicted the event with a particular threshold value, an example is shown in Figure 5.0.
Figures 5.1 through Figure 5.4 below, as the
threshold changes, the color indication changes. In Figure 5.4, the
pointer at one particular grid box shows "True for 50% of all
model runs for a threshold of this event for 3/4 of all the models...
Also compare and contrast with see Figure 4 above.
When the forecaster selects a threshold for points, any model that meets or exceeds this threshold should be considered. In other words, the threshold of points must be met before it is considered "an event" color indication other than gray.
Figure 5.0: True for 100% of models with a threshold of 1/4 (25%) points meeting criteria.
Figure 5.1: True for the color indicated % of models with a threshold of "This is an event for no models".
Figure 5.2: True for the color indicated % of models with a threshold of "This is an event for 1/4 of all models".
Figure 5.3: True for the color indicated % of models with a threshold of "This is an event for 1/2 of all models".
Figure 5.4: True for the color indicated % of models with a threshold of "This is an event for 3/4 of all models".
Any number of rules can be added to the database of events. Each event entry includes a Name, a Description of the event, a Rule to evaluate the event, a Priority rank (1-5), and a Category type.
See Figure 1.1 .
An additional document, the
3) Rule-Definition Guide
gives instructions on how to enter an event into the software package. Note: the list of Events can be colored by the Priority level of the Event found within the event database, or colored by the Category type of the Event. The rows of Events can also be sorted by the Priority level or alphabetically.
See Figure 8.
Figure 6.1: The rows of entries are colored by value of the Event's priority level
(1=red is the highest).
Figure 6.2: The rows of entries are colored by value of the Event's category type
(gray, for example is the color for Visibility)
Tracking significant events will vary based on options selected from the Event Awareness Monitor menu found on the main menu bar. The grid boxes can be colored in a way that is effective for evaluation. The grid boxes can be colored as a function of the percentage of points found to meet the rule on a scale of 100%, or by the percentages of models that have agreement, and more.
Figure 7: Monitor menu options:
1) Priority (1 high - 5 low),
2) Category type,
3) Percent of points compared to the total grid points,
4) Percent of models in agreement,
You can track the significance of the events by selecting one of the options from the Monitor menu list of options, there is a color scheme and color legend associated with each choice.
The Priority List option allows listing and sorting of the weather events by their priority rank. This value is entered in the Rule database. A rank of (1) is the highest priority. The options allow display of only the priorities of interest. The list of rules, indicated by a name like 'High Wind' can be sorted alphabetically, too. This can help in searching for the weather event of interest.
Figure 8: FEAT: Priority menu. Sort by Priority: High to Low is selected for demonstration purposes.
The Zoom options allow viewing choice alternatives.
Note: the scroll bar allows the user to examine forecast information that is outside the FEAT window.
Figure 9: FEAT: Demonstration of 'Full' zoom.