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Recommendations for Developing Useful and Usable Convection-Allowing Model Ensemble Information for NWS Forecasters

Abstract

U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters assess and communicate hazardous weather risks, including the likelihood of a threat and its impacts. Convection-allowing model (CAM) ensembles offer potential to aid forecasting by depicting atmospheric outcomes, including associated uncertainties, at the refined space and time scales at which hazardous weather often occurs. Little is known, however, about what CAM ensemble information is needed to inform forecasting decisions. To address this knowledge gap, participant observations and semistructured interviews were conducted with NWS forecasters from national centers and local weather forecast offices. Data were collected about forecasters’ roles and their forecasting processes, uses of model guidance and verification information, interpretations of prototype CAM ensemble products, and needs for information from CAM ensembles. Results revealed forecasters’ needs for specific types of CAM ensemble guidance, including a product that combines deterministic and probabilistic output from the ensemble as well as a product that provides map-based guidance about timing of hazardous weather threats. Forecasters also expressed a general need for guidance to help them provide impact-based decision support services. Finally, forecasters conveyed needs for objective model verification information to augment their subjective assessments and for training about using CAM ensemble guidance for operational forecasting. The research was conducted as part of an interdisciplinary research effort that integrated elicitation of forecasters’ CAM ensemble needs with model development efforts, with the aim of illustrating a robust approach for creating information for forecasters that is truly useful and usable.

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