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CarbonTracker
 
Documentation (CT2007)
Biosphere Oceans Observations Fires Fossil Fuel TM5 Nested Model Assimilation
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1.   Introduction
The observations of CO2 mole fraction by NOAA ESRL and partner laboratories are at the heart of CarbonTracker. They inform us on changes in the carbon cycle, whether they are regular (such as the seasonal growth and decay of leaves and trees), or irregular (such as the release of tons of carbon by a wildfire). The results in CarbonTracker depend directly on the quality and amount of observations available, and the degree of detail at which we can monitor the carbon cycle reliably increases strongly with the density of our observing network.

2.   Detailed Description
This study uses all analyzed air samples taken at the surface from the NOAA ESRL Cooperative Air Sampling Network available for each year studied, except those flagged for analysis or sampling problems. Assimilated data includes values that are flagged as not representative of typical background conditions. The composition of the network thus varies per week depending on successful sampling and analysis, and each sites' sampling frequency. In addition, we use continuous CO2 time series from five towers: (1) the 396m level of the WLEF tower in Wisconsin, (2) the 107m level of the AMT tower in Argyle, Maine, (3) the 251m level of the KWKT tower in Texas, (4) the 40m level of the tower in Fraserdale, Canada operated by the Meteorological Service Canada (MSC), and (5) the 23m level of the tower at Old Black Spruce, Canada operated by MSC. Other in-situ continuous CO2 time series used are from the NOAA ESRL observatories at Barrow, Mauna Loa, Samoa, and South Pole, and the continuous analyzer at Alert, Canada, operated by MSC. Note that all of these observations are calibrated against the same world CO2 standard (WMO-2005). Also, note that aircraft observations from the NOAA ESRL program were NOT assimilated, but used for independent assessment of the results.

At the continuous sampling sites, we construct one daytime average (12:00-16:00 Local Standard Time) mole fraction for each day from the time series, recognizing that our atmospheric transport model not always captures the continental nighttime stability regime while daytime well-mixed conditions are better matched. This approach is partly based on analysis of TransCom Continuous (TC) results [Law et al., 2007]. Moreover, observations at sub-daily time scales are likely to be strongly correlated and therefore add relatively little independent information to our results. Also based on TC continuous simulations, we decided to move a set of coastal sites by one degree into the ocean to force the model sample to be more representative of the actual site conditions. These sites are labeled for reference in the complete table of sites used in CarbonTracker.

We apply a further selection criterion during the assimilation to exclude non-Marine Boundary Layer (MBL) observations that are very poorly forecasted in our framework. We use the so-called model-data mismatch in this process, which is the random error prescribed to each observation to account for measurement errors as well as modeling errors of that observation. We interpret an observed-minus-forecasted (OmF) mole fraction that exceeds 3 times the prescribed model-data mismatch as an indicator that our modeling framework fails. This can happen for instance when an air sample is representative of local exchange not captured well by our 1x1 degree fluxes, when local meteorological conditions are not captured by our offline transport fields, but also when large-scale CO2 exchange is suddenly changed (e.g. fires, pests, droughts) to an extent that can not be accommodated by our flux modules. This last situation would imply an important change in the carbon cycle and has to be recognized by the researchers when analyzing the results. In accordance with the 3-sigma rejection criterion, ~2% of the observations are discarded through this mechanism in our assimilations. Table 1 gives a summary of the sites used and the assimilation performance.

CodeNameLat, Lon, ElevLabN usedN flaggedmismatchInn X2
alt_06C0 Alert, Nunavut, Canada82 27'N, 62 31'W, 200.0m MSC1737 0 2.50 0.20
amt_01C3 Argyle, Maine, United States45 2'N, 68 41'W, 50.0m NOAA 654 52 3.00 0.57
brw_01C0 Barrow, Alaska, United States71 19'N, 156 36'W, 11.0m NOAA1765 2 2.50 0.27
frd_06C0 Fraserdale, Canada49 53'N, 81 34'W, 210.0m MSC1711 40 3.00 0.42
mlo_01C0 Mauna Loa, Hawaii, United States19 32'N, 155 35'W, 3397.0m NOAA1197 0 0.75 0.89
obs_06C0 Old Black Spruce, Saskatchewan, Canada53 59'N, 105 7'W, 629.0m MSC 687 4 3.00 0.55
smo_01C0 Tutuila, American Samoa14 14'S, 170 34'W, 42.0m NOAA1965 0 0.75 0.66
spo_01C0 South Pole, Antarctica, United States89 59'S, 24 48'W, 2810.0m NOAA2074 0 0.75 0.45
wkt_01C3 Moody, Texas, United States31 19'N, 97 20'W, 251.0m NOAA 544 26 3.00 0.54
lef_01C3 Park Falls, Wisconsin, United States45 56'N, 90 16'W, 472.0m NOAA1532 31 3.00 0.54
alt_01D0 Alert, Nunavut, Canada82 27'N, 62 31'W, 200.0m NOAA 279 0 1.50 0.45
asc_01D0 Ascension Island, United Kingdom7 55'S, 14 25'W, 54.0m NOAA 499 0 0.75 1.31
ask_01D0 Assekrem, Algeria23 11'N, 5 25'E, 2728.0m NOAA 258 0 1.50 0.39
azr_01D0 Terceira Island, Azores, Portugal38 46'N, 27 23'W, 40.0m NOAA 189 4 1.50 0.91
bal_01D0 Baltic Sea, Poland55 21'N, 17 13'E, 3.0m NOAA 447 1 7.50 0.45
bkt_01D0 Bukit Kototabang, Indonesia0 12'S, 100 19'E, 864.5m NOAA 74 0 7.50 0.55
bme_01D0 St. Davids Head, Bermuda, United Kingdom32 22'N, 64 39'W, 30.0m NOAA 189 9 1.50 1.26
bmw_01D0 Tudor Hill, Bermuda, United Kingdom32 16'N, 64 53'W, 30.0m NOAA 203 3 1.50 1.00
brw_01D0 Barrow, Alaska, United States71 19'N, 156 36'W, 11.0m NOAA 269 6 1.50 0.65
bsc_01D0 Black Sea, Constanta, Romania44 10'N, 28 41'E, 3.0m NOAA 247 1 7.50 0.75
cba_01D0 Cold Bay, Alaska, United States55 12'N, 162 43'W, 25.0m NOAA 438 22 1.50 1.18
cgo_01D0 Cape Grim, Tasmania, Australia40 41'S, 144 41'E, 94.0m NOAA 245 0 1.50 0.20
chr_01D0 Christmas Island, Republic of Kiribati1 42'N, 157 10'W, 3.0m NOAA 223 0 0.75 1.19
crz_01D0 Crozet Island, France46 27'S, 51 51'E, 120.0m NOAA 180 0 0.75 0.96
eic_01D0 Easter Island, Chile27 9'S, 109 27'W, 50.0m NOAA 129 0 7.50 0.04
gmi_01D0 Mariana Islands, Guam13 26'N, 144 47'E, 1.0m NOAA 463 0 1.50 0.47
hba_01D0 Halley Station, Antarctica, United Kingdom75 35'S, 26 30'W, 30.0m NOAA 274 0 0.75 0.89
hun_01D0 Hegyhatsal, Hungary46 57'N, 16 39'E, 248.0m NOAA 274 3 7.50 0.44
ice_01D0 Storhofdi, Vestmannaeyjar, Iceland63 20'N, 20 17'W, 118.0m NOAA 258 2 1.50 0.52
izo_01D0 Tenerife, Canary Islands, Spain28 18'N, 16 29'W, 2360.0m NOAA 209 2 1.50 0.92
key_01D0 Key Biscayne, Florida, United States25 40'N, 80 12'W, 3.0m NOAA 196 0 2.50 0.31
kum_01D0 Cape Kumukahi, Hawaii, United States19 31'N, 154 49'W, 3.0m NOAA 266 0 1.50 0.49
kzd_01D0 Sary Taukum, Kazakhstan44 27'N, 75 34'E, 412.0m NOAA 271 55 2.50 0.65
kzm_01D0 Plateau Assy, Kazakhstan43 15'N, 77 53'E, 2519.0m NOAA 238 1 2.50 1.13
mhd_01D0 Mace Head, County Galway, Ireland53 20'N, 9 54'W, 25.0m NOAA 224 0 2.50 0.23
mid_01D0 Sand Island, Midway, United States28 13'N, 177 23'W, 3.7m NOAA 265 0 1.50 0.62
mkn_01D0 Mt. Kenya, Kenya0 3'S, 37 18'E, 3897.0m NOAA 57 0 2.50 1.00
mlo_01D0 Mauna Loa, Hawaii, United States19 32'N, 155 35'W, 3397.0m NOAA 310 0 1.50 0.28
nmb_01D0 Gobabeb, Namibia23 35'S, 15 2'E, 456.0m NOAA 16 0 2.50 0.17
nwr_01D0 Niwot Ridge, Colorado, United States40 3'N, 105 35'W, 3523.0m NOAA 264 2 1.50 0.74
obn_01D0 Obninsk, Russia55 7'N, 36 36'E, 183.0m NOAA 72 0 7.50 0.42
oxk_01D0 Ochsenkopf, Germany50 4'N, 11 48'E, 1193.0m NOAA 19 1 2.50 1.07
pal_01D0 Pallas-Sammaltunturi, GAW Station, Finland67 58'N, 24 7'E, 560.0m NOAA 145 1 2.50 0.82
poc_01D0 Pacific Ocean, N/A99 59'S, 999 59'W, 10.0m NOAA 896 1 7.50 0.01
psa_01D0 Palmer Station, Antarctica, United States64 55'S, 64 0'W, 10.0m NOAA 276 0 0.75 1.16
pta_01D0 Point Arena, California, United States38 57'N, 123 44'W, 17.0m NOAA 180 0 7.50 0.34
rpb_01D0 Ragged Point, Barbados13 10'N, 59 26'W, 45.0m NOAA 267 0 1.50 0.72
sey_01D0 Mahe Island, Seychelles4 40'S, 55 10'E, 3.0m NOAA 256 0 0.75 1.26
sgp_01D0 Southern Great Plains, Oklahoma, United States36 48'N, 97 30'W, 314.0m NOAA 369 29 2.50 0.49
shm_01D0 Shemya Island, Alaska, United States52 43'N, 174 6'E, 40.0m NOAA 234 1 2.50 0.82
smo_01D0 Tutuila, American Samoa14 14'S, 170 34'W, 42.0m NOAA 315 0 1.50 0.18
spo_01D0 South Pole, Antarctica, United States89 59'S, 24 48'W, 2810.0m NOAA 291 0 1.50 0.09
stm_01D0 Ocean Station M, Norway66 0'N, 2 0'E, 0.0m NOAA 504 5 1.50 0.76
sum_01D0 Summit, Greenland72 35'N, 38 29'W, 3238.0m NOAA 178 0 1.50 0.46
syo_01D0 Syowa Station, Antarctica, Japan69 0'S, 39 35'E, 11.0m NOAA 139 0 0.75 1.34
tap_01D0 Tae-ahn Peninsula, Republic of Korea36 44'N, 126 8'E, 20.0m NOAA 202 0 7.50 0.38
tdf_01D0 Tierra Del Fuego, Ushuaia, Argentina54 52'S, 68 29'W, 20.0m NOAA 74 0 0.75 0.67
thd_01D0 Trinidad Head, California, United States41 3'N, 124 9'W, 107.0m NOAA 134 0 7.50 0.44
uta_01D0 Wendover, Utah, United States39 54'N, 113 43'W, 1320.0m NOAA 250 55 2.50 0.32
uum_01D0 Ulaan Uul, Mongolia44 27'N, 111 6'E, 914.0m NOAA 273 5 2.50 0.67
wis_01D0 Sede Boker, Negev Desert, Israel31 8'N, 34 53'E, 400.0m NOAA 296 1 2.50 0.79
wlg_01D0 Mt. Waliguan, Peoples Republic of China36 17'N, 100 54'E, 3810.0m NOAA 166 6 1.50 1.16
zep_01D0 Ny-Alesund, Svalbard, Norway and Sweden78 54'N, 11 53'E, 475.0m NOAA 355 2 1.50 0.70
all Total 27675 373 0.00 0.55

3.   Further Reading