The building maintenance scheduled for Friday February 27th at 5:00pm MST has been postponed until 5:00pm March 6th. PSD's website will be down during the maintenance.

ESRL/PSD Seminar Series

Ensemble Data Assimilation Applied to Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

Ryan Torn, NCAR/ASP


Most operational data assimilation systems employ special techniques, such as vortex bogusing or vortex repositioning, to assimilate observations near tropical cyclones (TC) because the employed quasi-fixed error statistics, which determine how to spread observations to model grid points, are not appropriate. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) offers an attractive approach for TC state estimation because it assimilates observations using flow-dependent background error statistics based on short-term ensemble forecasts. This talk will describe the performance of a WRF EnKF system, which is cycled over the lifetime of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita (2005). While this EnKF system generally produces good track and intensity forecasts and has fewer spin-up problems, several challenges still exist for TC state estimation, especially at high resolution. In addition, the output from this EnKF system will be used to understand how initial condition errors can impact the predictability of these two storms.

PSD-South Conference Room(1D403)
Wednesday, 18 June 2008
2:00 pm Gather for refreshments at 1:50 pm

SECURITY: If you are coming from outside the NOAA campus, you must stop at the Visitor Center to obtain a vistor badge. Please allow 10 extra minutes for this procedure. If you are a foreign national coming from outside the NOAA campus, please contact Barbara Herrli (202-497-3876) or Joe Barsugli (303-497-6042) for information on access requirements.