Sensitivity of the 1993 Summer Hydrological Cycle to Gulf of Mexico Sea Surface Temperatures
Christopher Anderson, ESRL/GSD
This work-in-progess is motivated by recent warming of sea surface temperature in the north Tropical Atlantic, which is the primary water vapor source for the warm-season hydrological cycle in the central and eastern United States. It is of interest to examine how the SST increase has affected the regional hydrological cycle. The seminar will present results from a simple sensitivity experiment that serves as a preliminary examination of changes in the region's hydrological cycle in response to SST changes.
The sensitivity experiment consists of two limited-area model simulations of 1993 June-July, the period of severe flooding in the Midwest. The control simulation uses NCEP/DOE Reanalysis-II data as boundary and initial conditions. The experimental simulation applies a 0.4K perturbation to the Gulf of Mexico SST (similar to the difference in SST between 1993 and today) from the Reanalysis-II data but is otherwise identical to the control simulation. Results will show changes in water vapor flux, frequency of precipitation rates, precipitation cycling, and intensity of the hydrological cycle. Comments and discussion are welcomed.
SECURITY: If you are coming from outside the NOAA campus, please be advised that you will need an on-site sponsor. Please contact that person in advance of the seminar to be put on the list and allow 10 minutes extra on the day of the seminar. Please contact Joe Barsugli (303-497-6042) or Barbara Herrli (303-497-3876) at least a day before the seminar if you have any questions.