ESRL/PSD Seminar Series

Interactive Relationship between Air Travel and Climate

Kristopher Karnauskas
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute

Abstract


The airline industry closely monitors the midlatitude jet stream for short term planning of flight paths and arrival times. In addition to passenger safety and on–time metrics, this is due to the acute sensitivity of airline profits to fuel cost. U.S. carriers spent $47 billion on jet fuel in 2011, compared to a total industry operating revenue of $192 billion. Beyond the time scale of synoptic weather, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and other modes of variability modulate the strength and position of the Aleutian low and Pacific high on interannual time scales, which influence the tendency of the exit region of the midlatitude Pacific jet stream to extend, retract, and meander poleward and equatorward. The impact of global aviation on climate change has been studied for decades due to the radiative forcing of emitted greenhouse gases, contrails, and other effects. The impact of climate variability on air travel, however, has only recently come into focus and primarily in terms of turbulence. Shifting attention to flight durations, here we show that 88% of the interannual variance in domestic flight times between Hawaii and the continental U.S. is explained by a linear combination of ENSO and the AO. Further, we extend our analysis to CMIP5 model projections to explore potential feedbacks between anthropogenic climate change and air travel.


Friday May 29, 2015
10:00 am
1D-403
Seminar Coordinator: Barbara (barbara.s.herrli@noaa.gov)

SECURITY: If you are coming from outside the NOAA campus, you must stop at the Visitor Center to obtain a vistor badge. Please allow 10 extra minutes for this procedure. If you are a foreign national coming from outside the NOAA campus, please email the seminar coordinator at least 48 hours prior to the seminar to provide information required for security purposes.