Penland C. (January 2010): A linear stochastic model of tropical sea surface temperatures related to El Niño. In: Climate Dynamics: Why Does Climate Vary? Geophys. Monogr. Ser., 189 . AGU, Washington, DC, 65-77. ISBN 978-0-87590-480-1Full text not available from this repository.
In this chapter, we review evidence that tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) belong to a general category of dynamical systems; specifically, tropical SSTs can be well approximated as a linear dynamical system maintained by stochastic forcing. This evidence is based on fundamental properties of stochastic systems, which we review here before considering the observed dynamical behavior of SSTs. The validity of the linear approximation is examined by means of statistical tests and is found to hold surprisingly well.
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