The building maintenance scheduled for Friday February 27th at 5:00pm MST has been postponed until 5:00pm March 6th. PSD's website will be down during the maintenance.

Penland, C., and T. Magorian, 1993: Prediction of Niño 3 sea-surface temperature anomalies using linear inverse modeling. J. Climate, 6, 1067-1075.


Linear inverse modeling is used to predict sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Niño 3 region. Predictors in three geographical locations are used: the tropical Pacific Ocean, the tropical Pacific and Indian oceans, and the global tropical oceans. Predictions did not depend crucially on any of these three domains, and evidence was found to support the assumption that linear dynamics dominates most of the record. The prediction model performs better when SST anomalies are rapidly evolving than during warm events when large anomalies persist. The rms prediction error at a lead time of 9 months is about half a degree Celsius.