Program Status for 20 January 2001 : IOP 01
LLJ Profile | Map | Discussion
PACJET Forecast Discussion for Jan. 20 2001
The first PACJET flight is taking place this afternoon and evening
to investigate the frontal structure and observed conditions associated
with the system centered near 34N/138W at 19z.
The occluded circulation was clearly evident on satellite imagery with
observations supporting a center about 10mbs deeper than the ETA/AVN
6hr forecast valid at 18z. The 12z ETA run has fared better than the
AVN by indicating a surface center and upper trof farther southwest
closer to the satellite position. A triple point low appears to be
forming near 37N/132W which is forecast to strengthen and track
northeastward along a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending
northeast from the system....reaching the oregon coast sunday. The
band of deep moisture ahead of the main frontal band and along the
convergence area northeast of the system has been enhancing and should
continue to progress eastward tonight. The heaviest pcpn is expected to
reach into northern ca and oregon tonight and early sunday.
The outlook for the coming week indicates another system approaching the
west coast late monday and tuesday which is currently forecast to be
more significant than today's storm of concern. The latest model
guidance showed some minor timing differences with a deeper trof and a
significantly stronger sfc low lifting northeastward off the oregon and
washington coasts early tuesday.