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Project Status - 19 Mar 2007

Weather Status: Storm approaching coast is on schedule for a Tuesday morning arrival in the ARB, however precipitation amounts are marginal at best. Models keeping precip in the ARB in the .5-0.75 range over a very short duration (12-15 hrs), so not calling an IOP still looks like a good decision at this time. Ensemble models showing a bit more precip than large scale models with amounts up to 2 inches 100km NW of the ARB. In the ARB amounts are below an inch. NWS is in agreement with 0.5-0.75 forecast for the ARB. Further out, a very strong jet in the mid Pacific coupled to increasing convection in the area near 140E will begin to change things in the eastern Pacific. Long range models and MJO/Rossby wave propagation diagnostics indicate troughy conditions developing over the coast over the next two weeks. This, of course is beyond the sheduled end of the HMT. Consensus was that two storms (26-27 and 29-30 March) should be monitored for possible data collection. So...no IOP on current wave. Extension of project into next week is possible.

System Status: All local models back in action so a workstation comms timing test will be scheduled for Tuesday.

Operations Proposal: Daily telecons will end on the 22nd. ESRL personnel (only) will have a daily local consultation 23 through 30 March to determine if soundings should be launched for the two storms likely in the next week (26-27 March and 29-30 March). NWS and Slough House will be notified 24-48 hrs in advance for supplemental sondes. NWS will be consulted on forecast details as needed. ESRL personnel will will serve as volunteer forecasters through the extension period. Please give this proposal some condideration. We will discuss it on Thursday.

John McGinley, GSD


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