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Project Status - 18 Mar 2007

Weather Status: Today's model runs continue to downtrend the QPF in the HMT region. Most models are well under an inch for the 16 hour event. Precip should begin 20 March 06-09GMT and be over by 22 GMT. It doesn't look like this will meet IOP criteria of 1inch in 24 hrs. NWS in agreement with low precip totals. Moisture band ahead of trough is weaker today than yesterday. All in all a discouraging outlook for the last storm in the regular HMT experimental period. Outlook beyond the 22nd indicates a possible stormy period next weekend, but details haven't revealed themselves as yet. During Monday's discussion we will consider extending the experiment to capture the weekend activity. If there is a big turnaround in the next 24 hrs we could consider a late-hour IOP, but right now this looks unlikely. So bottom line: no IOP for Tuesday.

System Status: Slough House may take advantage of rain Tuesday morning to test rawinsonde receiver. WRF-NMM still down. Other ensemble members running.

John McGinley, GSD


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