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Project Status - 17 Mar 2007

Weather Status: System expected early in the week continues to be a tough call. Models today are uniformly slower with the system not initiating precipitation until Tuesday morning. The length of the event is 24 hrs at best. Precip totals look to be near an inch but consensus looks more like 0.5 to 0.75. A slower scenario could be good as this enhances the entrainment of a weak moisture plume. Best guess at timing is first raindrops about 09GMT 20 Mar (Tue 2am) with the event over 06GMT 21 March (11pm Tuesday). Beyond this current system it looks like the Pacific is energizing with strong jet flow establishing itself off the Asian coast. Long range models show a possible system next weekend. with more after that. A decision for extending the project will be made on Monday after our interactions with the long rangers, Ed and Klaus. So for today, a possible IOP begining Tuesday, with a final go/no-go decsion tomorrow.

System Status: As a heads-up, if soundings are necessary for a Tuesday IOP , best guess is for launches near midnight to 1am Tuesday morning. Sonde frequency and more precise timing will be decided on tomorrow, IF an IOP is called. IOP or not, Slough House, under rainy skies should take the opportunity to perform a receiver test.
Local ensemble is running but not long range WRF-NMM, still down owing to data transfer problems.

John McGinley, GSD


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