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Project Status - 16 Mar 2007

Weather Status: All signs are pointing to an open wave impacting central CA by Monday mid-day. Strength of system is still an issue with models backing off a bit on total precipitation. An IPW plume is present and may be captured by the wave. If so this could increase rainfall substantially. Current model forecasts indicate 0.8 to 1.3 inches with the higher amounts north of the HMT area. NWS feels QPF from 0.5-0.8". Precipitation start time in HMT domain would be 18GMT Monday. Precipitation could go on into Tuesday afternoon/evening. HPC not as encouraging with amounts less than half-an-inch. We'll look at this Saturday to better determine the prospects for an IOP. Monday we will look at the long range to consider prospects beyond the HMT end date of 22 March. So for today, looking 72hrs out, we may be launching an IOP. Over the weekend we'll fine tune this outlook.

System Status: Slough House has 18-19 sondes, enough for 3 days or so. Sonde activities need 24-48 hrs notification so will update Saturday and Sunday for possible Monday operations. Model data from WRF-ARW ensemble is streaming again. Problems still with NMM. Workstation timing test will not go forward until full model complement is up and running.

John McGinley, GSD


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