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Project Status - 14 Mar 2007

Weather Status: Dry and warm as ridge builds over the HMT region. Trof of interest is in mid-Pacific. GFS deterministic run is fastest and driest of all models as the open wave hits the coast on Mon-Tues (Mar 19-20) next week. European, NOGAPS and Canadian all agree on a stronger, slower moving wave more in the Tue-Wed time frame. With the convective flare-up at 140E, models are probably slow to have worked in the latent heat release and momentum transfer so models may be unreliable and variable for a few cycles. Best guess is to favor the slower consensus and stick with a Tuesday-Wednesday scenario. Long range outlook for week two is uncertain for the same reason. Tropical flare-up will have impact on momentum transfer into mid latitudes and strenthening of subtropical jet. This points to possibly more favorable conditions beyond the event next week. We will update the long range outlook Monday to determine if project will continue beyond 22 March. For today: No IOP for the next 72 hours.

System Status: High resolution models went down owing to loss of nodes. Runs are needed for ALPS workstation timing tests.

John McGinley, GSD

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