Project Status Jan 26, 2007
Closed off trough off the west coast continues to meander bringing some rain and showers to the coastal ranges. Forecast for this system is very uncertain. An optimum track could bring some rain to the ARB but only in small amounts. 3-5 day progs indicate a huge ridge building off the coast which will put the Sierras in northerly flow and completely cut off any hope of high Pacific IPWs flowing into the HMT area. Long range outlook does offer some hope as the convective clusters in the W. Pacific are starting to couple with the westerly jet bringing an increased flow of moisture further north and east. Best hope is for this enhanced flow to undercut the ridge finally opening the door to the subtropics. However, this is probably not likely until the Feb 4-5 time frame. The bottom line is that no IOP is likely for a week or more. Workstations have arrived at Reno and Monterey with installations under way. Plan is for workstation user training and ensemble training to occur sometime in the next week.
John McGinley, ESRL/GSD