Climate CSI

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Posted by csi at 5:02 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

An inspection of the PMEL analysis of the Pacific water volume anomalies (a measure of ocean heat content) indicates a most curious behavior of the Pacific Ocean temperatures during this La Nina. 

The figure I'm looking at is our attribution toolbox:

http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/CSI/tools.html

Go to Current Conditions item 6, and select the Warm Water Volume: East vs West

In the PMEL analysis of the 25-yr history of water water volume anomaly, there have occurred 3 prior La Nina periods - roughly around 1984, 1988, 1999.  In all those, a (low) cold water volume anomaly in the west Pacific preceeds the low (cold) water volume anomaly in the east Pacific (and also the SST cooling of the eastern Pacific) by about 6 months or so from my read of the graph.

The current La Nina has seen no low (cold) water volume anomaly in the west Pacific, either as a precursor for this event in spring 2007, or as a current condition this Fall 2007.

The questions I'd like to toss out to CSI team for discussion are:

Q1: Is there something unique about the physical processes responsible for this La Nina relative to its prior 3 ancestors?

Q2: Has this differnence in antecdent Pacific basin conditions affected the predictability of this La Nina relative to its prior 3 ancestors?

Q3: What is the physical role of the antecedent water volume anomalies in the western Pacific for subsequent ENSO development (it seems to be neither a necessary nor a sufficient factor for ENSO development)

Q4: To my eye, there is a hint in the PMEL historical analysis that conditions of low water volume anomalies in the easterm  Pacific have a longer time scale than the opposite phased anomalies.  Is there reason, based upon current water volume condition, and historical events, to suspect that 2008 will be more likely La Nina rather than El Nina? (I note that many prediction models show this La Nina terminating in spring 2008)

Posted by Marty Hoerling at 7:57 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)

A summary of the meeting may be put up on the blog.

Posted by David Enfield at 8:29 PM | Permalink | TrackBacks (0)