HMT Forecast Thu 2/22/2007
Precipitation associated with the current IOP tapers off to one or two tenths per 6h after sundown Thursday, although that light precipitation rate persists throughout the day Friday. The rain/snow line starts today around 4000 ft and descends to 1200 ft or so by sunrise tomorrow/Friday, climbing back up to 2000 ft or so during the day. The precipitation shuts down for good before sundown Friday.
After the current trough pushes through the ARB area today there will be a a 24h period without precipitation, from 00Z Saturday to 00Z Sunday. Then a two-day period (00Z Sun - 00Z Tue) of somewhat direct onshore flow of moderate strength sets up, feeding precipitation rates of remarkably consistent .3-.5 inch per 6h. This is marginal IOP weather by the standards of last winter. The rain/snow line hovers around 1500-2000 ft during this period. This precedes a trough passage that dumps over two inches in the 18h ending 00Z, with snow getting below 1000 ft, and then terminates this precipitation event. This would be IOP weather for sure.
Paul Schultz