NOAA Earth System Research
Lab, Physical Sciences Division
R/PSD 1, 325 Broadway
Boulder CO 80305-3328 USA
(303) 497-3060 fax -6949
e-mail: <tom.hamill_at_noaa.gov>
Education:
Ph.D., 1997: Cornell
University (meteorology, applied math and statistics minors)
M.S., 1987: Pennsylvania State
University (meteorology; NWP concentration. Tom
Warner, advisor.)
B.S., 1985: Cornell
University (meteorology)
Professional Experience:
2005 - current: Meteorologist, NOAA Earth System Research
Lab, Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO.
2000 - 2005: Research Scientist, University of Colorado, CIRES
(at the former NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Center), Boulder, CO.
1997 - 2000: Postdoctoral fellow, National Center for Atmospheric
Research, Boulder, CO.
1993 - 1997: Ph. D. candidate in atmospheric sciences, Cornell University. Studied
short-range ensemble forecasting using the Eta model (funded by
the National Science Foundation). Minors in statistics and applied
mathematics. Steve Colucci, advisor.
1991 - 1993: Senior Research Associate, Atmospheric and Environmental
Research, Inc. , Cambridge, MA. Principal investigator on
research projects for cloud nowcasting and use of profiler network
data. Also performed research in cloud analysis and doppler radar
data assimilation in mesoscale forecast models (using the CSU/RAMS
model)
1987 - 1991: United States Air Force. Officer-in-charge,
Cloud Analysis Unit,
Air Force Global Weather Central (now AFWA), Offutt AFB, NE.
Responsible for research and development of improvements to the
Air Force's cloud analysis and prediction models.
Refereed Publications:
(60) Hamill, T. M., F. Yang, C. Cardinali, and S. J. Majumdar,
2012: Impact
of targeted Winter Storms Reconnaissance dropwindsonde data on
mid-latitude numerical weather forecasts. Mon.
Wea. Rev., accepted.
(59) Hamill, T. M., G. T. Bates, J. S. Whitaker, D. R. Murray, M.
Fiorino, T. J. Galarneau, Jr., Y. Zhu, and W. Lapenta, 2012:
NOAA's second-generation
global medium-range ensemble reforecast data set.
Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., in press.
(58) Whitaker, J. S., and T. M. Hamill, 2012: Evaluating
methods to account for system errors in ensemble data
assimilation. Mon.
Wea. Rev., 140, 3078-3089.
(57) Hamill, T. M., 2012: Verification
of TIGGE Multi-model and ECMWF Reforecast-Calibrated
Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts over the Conterminous
US. Mon. Wea. Rev.,
140, 2232-2252.
(57a) Hamill, T. M., 2012: Online
appendix to Verification of TIGGE Multi-model and ECMWF
Reforecast-Calibrated Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts
over the Conterminous US. Mon. Wea. Rev.
(56) Hirschberg, P.A., E. Abrams. A. Bleistein, W. Bua, L. Delle
Monache, T. W. Dulong, J. E. Gaynor, B. Glahn, T. M. Hamill, J. A.
Hansen, D. C. Hilderbrand, R. N. Hoffman, B. H. Morrow, B.
Philips, J. Sokich, N. Stuart, 2011: A
weather and climate enterprise strategic implementation plan for
generating and communicating forecast uncertainty
information. Bull.
Amer. Meteor. Soc., 92,
1651-1666.
(55) Hagedorn, R., Buizza, R., Hamill, T. M., Leutbecher, M., and
T. N. Palmer, 2012: Comparing
TIGGE multi-model forecasts with reforecast-calibrated ECMWF
ensemble forecasts. Quart
J. Royal Meteor Soc., 138, 1814-1827.
(54) Galarneau, T. J., Hamill, T. M., Dole, R. M., and J.
Perlwitz, 2012: A
Multi-Scale Analysis of the Extreme Weather Events over Western
Russia and Northern Pakistan During July 2010. Mon. Wea. Rev., 140, 1639-1664. DOI
10.1175/MWR-D-11-00191.1
(53) Hamill, T. M., M. J. Brennan, B. Brown, M. DeMaria, E. N.
Rappaport, and Z. Toth, 2012: Future
ensemble based hurricane products. Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., in
press. Also: online Appendix
A and Appendix
B.
(52) Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, D. T. Kleist, M. Fiorino, and
S. J. Benjamin, 2011: Predictions
of 2010's tropical cyclones using the GFS and ensemble-based
data assimilation methods. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 3243-3247.
(51) Hamill, T. M., and J. S. Whitaker, 2011: What
Constrains Spread Growth in Forecasts Initialized from Ensemble
Kalman Filters? Mon. Wea.
Rev., 139,
117-131.
(50) Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, M. Fiorino, and S. J.
Benjamin, 2011: Global
ensemble predictions of 2009's tropical cyclones initialized
with an ensemble Kalman filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 139, 668-688.
(49) Schaake, J., Pailleux, J., Thielen, J., Arritt, R., Hamill,
T., Luo, L. F., Martin, E., McCollor, D., Pappenberger, F., 2010
(April): Summary of recommendations of the first workshop on
Postprocessing and Downscaling Atmospheric Forecasts for
Hydrologic Applications held at Meteo-France, Toulouse, France,
15-18 June 2009. Atmospheric
Science Letters. 11(2):
p. 59-63. DOI: 10.1002/asl.267
(48) Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, J. L. Anderson, and C. Snyder,
2009: Comment
on "Sigma-point Kalman filter data assimilation methods for
strongly nonlinear systems. J. Atmos. Sci., 66, 3498-3500.
(47) Bougeault, P., Z. Toth, many others, T. M. Hamill, and many
others, 2009: The
THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE). Bull Amer. Meteor. Soc., 91, 1059-1072.
(46) Wang, X., T. M. Hamill, J. S. Whitaker, C. H. Bishop, 2009: A
comparison of the hybrid and EnSRF analysis schemes in the
presence of model error due to unresolved scales. Mon. Wea. Rev., 137, 3219-3232.
(45) Whitaker, J. S., T. M. Hamill, X. Wei, Y. Song, and Z. Toth,
2008: Ensemble
data assimilation with the NCEP Global Forecast System.
Mon. Wea. Rev., 136,
463-482.
(44) Wang, X., D. M. Barker, C. Snyder, and T. M. Hamill,
2008: A hybrid ETKF-3DVAR data
assimilation scheme for the WRF model. Part II: real observation
experiments. Mon.
Wea. Rev., 136,
5132-5147.
(43) Wang, X., D. M. Barker, C. Snyder, and T. M. Hamill,
2008: A hybrid ETKF-3DVAR data
assimilation scheme for the WRF model. Part I: observing system
simulation experiments. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 5116-5131.
(42) Hamill, T. M., R. Hagedorn, and J. S. Whitaker, 2008: Probabilistic
forecast calibration using ECMWF and GFS ensemble
reforecasts. Part II: precipitation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 136, 2620-2632.
(41) Hagedorn, R, T. M. Hamill, and J. S. Whitaker, 2008: Probabilistic
forecast
calibration
using
ECMWF
and
GFS
ensemble
reforecasts.
Part
I:
2-meter
temperature. Mon.
Wea. Rev., 136,
2608-2619.
(40) Hamill, T. M., 2007: Making
the AMS carbon neutral: offsetting the impacts of flying to
conferences. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 6-9.
(39) Hamill, T. M., and J. S. Whitaker, 2007: Ensemble calibration of
500 hPa geopotential height and 850 hPa and 2-meter temperatures
using reforecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135,
3273-3280.
(38) Schaake, J. C., T. M. Hamill, R. Buizza, and M. Clark, 2007:
HEPEX, the Hydrological Ensemble
Prediction Experiment. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 88, 1541-1547.
(37) Hamill, T. M., 2007:
Comments on "Calibrated Surface Temperature forecasts from the
Canadian ensemble prediction system using Bayesian Model
Averaging. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135, 4226-4230.
(36) Wilks, D. S., and T. M. Hamill, 2007: Comparison of ensemble-MOS methods
using GFS reforecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135,
2379-2390.
(35) Wang, X., T. M. Hamill, and C. Snyder, 2007: On
the theoretical equivalence of differently proposed
ensemble/3D-Var hybrid analysis schemes Mon.
Wea. Rev., 135, 222-227.
(34) Wang, X., T. M. Hamill, C. Snyder, and C. H. Bishop, 2006: A
Comparison of Hybrid Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter-OI and
Ensemble Square-Root filter Analysis Schemes. Mon. Wea.
Rev., 135, 1055-1076.
(33) Hamill, T. M., 2006:
Ensemble-based atmospheric data assimilation Chapter 6 of Predictability
of Weather and Climate, Cambridge Press, 124-156.
(32) Hamill, T. M., and J. Juras, 2006: Measuring forecast skill: is
it real skill or is it the varying climatology?
Quart. J. Royal Meteor. Soc., 132, 2905-2923.
(31) Hamill, T. M., and J. S. Whitaker, 2006: Probabilistic quantitative
precipitation forecasts based on reforecast analogs: theory and
application Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3209-3229.
(30) Sutton, C. J., T. M. Hamill, and T. T. Warner, 2006: Will Perturbing Soil Moisture
Improve Warm-Season Ensemble Forecasts? A Proof of Concept
Mon. Wea. Rev., 134, 3174-3189.
(30a) Sutton, C. J., T. M. Hamill, and T. T. Warner, 2006: Appendix to "Will Perturbing Soil
Moisture Improve Warm-Season Ensemble Forecasts? A Proof of
Concept" Mon. Wea. Rev..
(29) Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, and S. L. Mullen, 2006: Reforecasts, an important dataset for
improving weather predictions. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc.,
87,33-46.
(28) Hamill, T. M., and J. S. Whitaker, 2005: Accounting for the error due to unresolved
scales in ensemble data assimilation: a comparison of different
approaches Mon. Wea. Rev., 133, 3132-3147.
(27) Hamill, T. M., R. S. Schneider, H. E. Brooks, G. S. Forbes,
H. B. Bluestein, M. Steinberg, D. Melendez, and R. M. Dole, 2005:
The May 2003 Extended Tornado Outbreak
Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 86, 531-542.
(27a) Hamill, T. M., R. S. Schneider, H. E. Brooks, G. S. Forbes,
H. B. Bluestein, M. Steinberg, D. Melendez, and R. M. Dole, 2005:
Supplement 1 to The May 2003 Extended
Tornado Outbreak Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc..
(27b) Hamill, T. M., R. S. Schneider, H. E. Brooks, G. S. Forbes,
H. B. Bluestein, M. Steinberg, D. Melendez, and R. M. Dole, 2005:
Supplement 2 to The May 2003 Extended
Tornado Outbreak Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc..
(26) Hamill, T. M., J. S. Whitaker, and X. Wei, 2004: Ensemble re-forecasting: improving
medium-range forecast skill using retrospective forecasts Mon.
Wea. Rev., 132, 1434-1447.
(25) Whitaker, J. S., G. P. Compo, X. Wei, and T. M. Hamill, 2003:
Reanalysis without radiosondes using
ensemble data assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev. ,
132, 1190-1200.
(24) Tippett, M., J. L. Anderson, C. H. Bishop, T. M. Hamill, and
J. S. Whitaker, 2003: Ensemble
square-root filters. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131,1485-1490.
(23) Hamill, T. M., 2003: Evaluating
forecasters' rules of thumb: a study of D(Prog)/Dt Wea.
Forecasting, 18, 933-937.
(22) Snyder, C., T. M. Hamill, and S. J. Trier, 2003: Linear evolution of error covariances in a
quasigeostrophic model. Mon. Wea. Rev., 131,
189-205.
(21) Hamill, T. M., C. Snyder, and J. S. Whitaker, 2002: Ensemble forecasts and the properties of
flow-dependent analysis-error covariance singular vectors. Mon.
Wea.
Rev., 131, 1741-1758.
(20) Snyder, C., and T. M. Hamill, 2003:
Lyapunov stability of a turbulent baroclinic jet in a
quasigeostrophic model. J. Atmos. Sci., 60683-688.
(19) Hamill, T. M., C. Snyder, and R. E. Morss, 2002: Analysis-error statistics of a
quasigeostrophic model using 3-dimensional variational
assimilation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130,
2777-2790.
(18) Whitaker, J. S., and T. M. Hamill, 2002: Ensemble data assimilation without
perturbed observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130,
1913-1924.
(17) Hamill, T. M., 2002: Adaptive observations. Published in Encyclopedia
of the Atmospheric Sciences, Elsevier Science, Ltd.,
2537-2542.
(16) Hamill, T. M., and C. Snyder, 2002: Using improved background error
covariances from an ensemble Kalman filter for adaptive
observations. Mon. Wea. Rev., 130,
1552-1572.
(15) Hamill, T. M., Whitaker, J. S., and C. Snyder, 2001: Distance-dependent filtering of
background error covariance estimates in an ensemble Kalman
filter. Mon. Wea. Rev., 129, 2776-2790.
(14) Hamill, T. M., 2001: Interpretation
of rank histograms for verifying ensemble forecasts. Mon.
Wea. Rev., 129, 550-560.
(13) Hamill, T. M., C. Snyder, D. P. Baumhefner, Z. Toth, and S.
L. Mullen, 2000: Ensemble
forecasting in the short to medium range: report from a
workshop. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 81,
2653-2664.
(12) Hamill, T. M., and C. Snyder, 2000:
A hybrid ensemble Kalman filter / 3D-variational analysis
scheme. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128,
2905-2919. (nominated for NCAR's publication of the year award,
2000)
(11) Hamill, T. M., and A. Church, 2000: Conditional tornado probabilities
From RUC-2 forecasts, Wea. Forecasting, 15,
461-475.
(10) Hamill, T. M., C. Snyder, and R. E. Morss, 2000: A comparison of probabilistic
forecasts from bred, singular vector, and perturbed observation
ensembles. Mon. Wea. Rev., 128, 1835-1851.
(9) Hamill, T. M., 1999: Hypothesis
tests for evaluating numerical precipitation forecasts. Wea.
Forecasting, 14, 155-167.
(8) Hamill, T. M., 1998:
Comments on "Short-Range Ensemble Forecasting of Explosive
Australian East-Coast Cyclogenesis" Wea. Forecasting,
13,1205-1207.
(7) Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1998:
Evaluation of Eta/RSM Ensemble Probabilistic Precipitation
Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 126, 711-724
(6) Hamill, T. M., 1997: Reliability
diagrams for multi-category probability forecasts. Wea.
Forecasting., 12, 736-741
(5) Hamill, T. M., and S. J. Colucci, 1997: Verification of Eta/RSM Short-Range
Ensemble Forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125,
1312-1327.
(4) Wilks, D. S., and Hamill, T. M., 1995: Potential economic value of
ensemble-based surface weather forecasts. Mon. Wea. Rev.,
123, 3565-3575.
(3) Hamill, T. M., and D. S. Wilks, 1994: The difficulty in assessing
short-range forecast uncertainty: demonstration with a
probability-based contest. Wea. Forecasting, 10,
619-630.
(2) Hamill, T. M., and T. Nehrkorn, 1993: A short-term cloud forecast scheme
using cross-correlations. Wea. Forecasting, 8,
401-411.
(1) Hamill, T. M., R. P. d'Entremont, and J. T. Bunting, 1992: A description of the Air Force real-time
nephanalysis model. Wea. Forecasting, 7,
288-306.
2013: Co-convener, 6th
WMO International Symposium on Data Assimilation, Camp
Springs, MD, Oct 2013.
2012 - current : Co-chair, WMO/THORPEX Data Assimilation and
Observing Systems Committee.
2011: Co-convener of poster session for WCRP Open
Science Conference, Denver.
2011: Local organizer of 27th
Annual WGNE (Working Group for Numerical Experimentation)
meeting, Boulder, Colorado.
2011: Organizer, joint WGNE-THORPEX-ECMWF workshop
on model uncertainty.
2010: Editor, special
collection for Monthly Weather Review on Third THORPEX
International Science Symposium
2008 - 2012: Member, International THORPEX Data Asssimilation and
Observing Systems Committee
2008 - 2012: Member, American Meteorological Society Committee for
Environmental Responsibility
2008 - 2012: Program Manager for NOAA THORPEX.
2008-2014: Member, World
Meteorological Organization's Working Group on Numerical
Experimentation (WGNE)
2008: Member, drafting committee for AMS
statement on probabilistic forecasting.
2007-2010: Member, American Meteorological Society Ad-Hoc
Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts (co-chair, Working Group
III, "Solutions")
2007-2010: Member, NOAA/NWS Forecast Uncertainty Steering Team.
2007-2010: Editor, Monthly
Weather Review
2007: Coordinator, AMS Short Course on Ensemble Prediction Methods
2006-2011: Member, American Meteorological Society Committee
on Probability and Statistics
2006-2007: Associate Editor, Weather
and
Forecasting
2005 - current : Member, HEPEX International Steering Committee
2005-2008 : Member, International THORPEX TIGGE-GIFS Science
Committee
2005 : Coordinator, HEPEX Workshop
on Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction.
2003 : Coordinator,
Workshop on Ensemble Forecasting
1999 : Coordinator, NCAR Workshop on Ensemble Forecasting
1999 - 2003 : Associate Editor, Monthly
Weather Review
1997 - current : Proposal reviewer for National Science Foundation
Awards
2013: NOAA Bronze Medal (with Jeff Whitaker, for "
excellence in research and development of ensemble-based and
hybrid data assimilation techniques that improve operational
weather forecasts.")
2008: NOAA Publication of the Year award for 2006 Bulletin of the American
Meteorological Society article on reforecasting.
2002 : American Meteorological Society's Editor's Award for Monthly
Weather
Review.
2001 : Presidential
Early-Career Award for Scientists and Engineers
1997 : National Center for Atmospheric Research Advanced Studies Program
post-doctoral fellowship
Proposals Awarded
2010: Department of Energy Advanced Leadership Computing
Challenge award of 14.5 million CPU hours to produce a
next-generation reforecast.
2004: THORPEX, An Intercomparison of Bred, Perturbed Observation,
and Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter Methods for Initializing
Ensemble Forecasts (co-PI, Jeff Whitaker). NOAA-B8R2WRP, $210,373
2002: Collaborative Research: ITR/Ensemble-based state estimation
for a next-generation weather forecasting model, $220,706.
2002: Incorporating the Uncertainty of Atmosphere-Land Surface
Interactions into Ensemble Forecasts. National Science Foundation,
$320,000.
2001: Diversifying Ensemble Forecasts with Stochastic Convection
(co-PI; Brian Mapes, PI). National Science Foundation. $343,000.
1995: "Short-range ensemble prediction..." $86,003 by National
Science Foundation. Grant funded my dissertation research
(submitted under my advisor's name). 1991: "Nowcasting Methods
Testing" $144,917 by U.S. Air Force, PRDA PL/LY 91-05
Developed new ways to use satellite and doppler profiler data for
nowcasting.
National Centers for Environmental Prediction (1995, 1996, 1997,
2000, 2006, 2009, 2011) ; NOAA Techniques Development Lab (1996) ;
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (1998) ;
National Weather Service COMET Numerical Weather Prediction
Faculty Course (1999) ; National Severe Storms Lab (1999, 2007,
2010) ; University of Oklahoma (1999, 2007, 2010ab) ; University
of Arizona (2000) ; University at Albany/State University of New
York (2000); NASA/Goddard (2000) ; Canadian Meteorological Centre
(2001, 2006, 2010) ; Colorado State University (2001, 2003, 2012);
Cornell University (2001, 2003) ; Massachusetts Institute of
Technology (2001); AER, Inc. (2001) ; National Weather Service
COMET Climate Variability Course (2002, 2006, 2007) ; NCAR (2000,
2002, 2004, 2005, 2007, 2010); ECMWF Seminar on Predictability
(2002); University of Colorado (2002); ECMWF (2004, 2005, 2006,
2007); University of L'Aquila, Italy (2004); UK Met Office (2004,
2007); NOAA/FSL (2004); University of Washington (2004, 2007);
NOAA Headquarters (2004); NOAA/MDL (2004); University of Maryland
(2004); National Academy of Sciences (2005); NCAR
Terrestrial Hydrometeorology Workshop (2006); NCAR Verification
Workshop (2007); IUGG, Perugia, Italy (2007); NCAR COMET
Hydrological Forecast Course (2007), Southwest Hydrometeorological
Workshop, Tucson (2007); University of Washington Climate Impacts
Group (2007); ECMWF
Workshop on Ensemble Prediction (2007); NCEP ensemble
forecast users workshop (2008); Mediterranean
School
of Mesoscale Meteorology, Sardinia, Italy (2008).
ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy (2008). WGNE, Montreal (2008), and
Offenbach, Germany (2009). WMO WWRP/THORPEX Workshop on
4D-VAR and Ensemble Kalman Filter Intercomparisons, Buenos Aires,
Argentina (2008). NOAA Intraseasonal to Interranual Workshop
(2009); Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (2009);
University of Heidelberg (2009), NCAR ASP verification summer
colloquium (2010); NUOPC workshop, Boulder, CO (2010); NCAR DTC
Ensemble Testbed workshop (2010); Utilities Wind Integration
Group, Albany NY (2011); ensemble user workshop, Laurel, MD
(2011); ECMWF Model Uncertainty workshop (2011); University of
Innsbruck (2011); NOAA Research Council (2012); NOAA Climate
Program Office/MAPP (2012); NCEP/EMC/GMB (2012); NCAR ASP Summer
Colloquium (2012); NCAR COMET Winter Weather Course (2012).