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Forecasters' Forum

Current forecast.

Newman, M., P. D. Sardeshmukh, and C. Penland, 2009: How important is air-sea coupling in ENSO and MJO evolution? J. Climate, 22, 2958-2977.
Ewald, B., and C. Penland, 2009: Numerical Generation of Stochastic Differential Equations in Climate Models. In Handbook of Numerical Analysis: Computational Methods for the Atmosphere and the Oceans, Elsevier, R. Temam and J.Tribbia, eds., North-Holland/Elsevier, Amsterdam (reviewed).
Penland, C., and B.D. Ewald, 2008: On Modeling Physical Systems with Stochastic Differential Equations: Diffusion vs. Levy Processes. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society., 366, 2457-2476.
Penland, C., and L. Matrosova, 2008: A Southern Hemisphere footprint in American Midwest Precipitation. Geophysical Research Letters, 35, L09703, doi:10.1029/2008GL033612.
Tziperman, E., L. Zanna, and C. Penland, 2008: Non-normal thermohaline circulation dynamics in a coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM. J. Phys. Oceanog., 38, 588-604.
Alexander, M. A., L. Matrosova, C. Penland, J. D. Scott, and P. Chang, 2008: Forecasting Pacific SSTs: Linear Inverse Model Predictions of the PDO. J. Climate, 21, 385-402.
Penland, C.: 2007: Stochastic Linear Models of Nonlinear Geosystems. In Nonlinear Dynamics in Geosystems, A. Tsonis and J. Elsner, eds., Springer, 604pp, New York (reviewed).
Hansen, J., and C. Penland, 2007: On Stochastic Parameter Estimation using Data Assimilation, Physica D, 230, 88-98.
Penland, C., and L. Matrosova, 2006: Studies of El Nino and interdecadal variability in tropical sea surface temperatures using a nonnormal filter. J. Climate, 19, 5796-5815.
Hansen, J., and C. Penland, 2006: Efficient approximation techniques for integrating stochastic differential equations. Monthly Weather Review, 134, 3006-3014.
Penland,C., and L. Matrosova, 2006: Enhanced predictability of Caribbean sea surface temperatures using a nonnormal filter. Proc. Caribbean Climate Symposium, Mayaguez, Puerto Rico, 24-25 April 2006.
Penland, C., and P. Sura, 2005: Sensitivity of an ocean model to "details" of stochastic forcing. Proc. ECMWF Workshop on Represenation of Subscale Processes using Stochastic-Dynamic Models.. Reading, England, 6-8 June 2005.
Sura, P., M. Newman, C. Penland, and P.D. Sardeshmukh, 2005: Multiplicative noise and non-Gaussianity: A paradigm for atmospheric regimes? J. Atmos. Sci.,62, 1391-1409.
Fluegel, M., P. Chang, and C. Penland, 2004: The role of stochastic forcing in modulating ENSO predictability, J. Climate, 17, 3125-3140.
Ewald, B., C. Penland, and R, Temam, 2004: Accurate Integration of Stochastic Climate Models. Monthly Weather Review, 132, 154-164.
Penland, C., and L. Matrosova, 2004: Getting Rid of El Nino. Proc. 17th Conf. on Probability and Statistics, Seattle, WA, Jan. 2004.
Sardehmukh, P., C. Penland, and M. Newman, 2003: Drifts induced by multiplicative red noise with application to climate. Europhysics Letters, 63, 498-504.
Penland, C., 2003: Noise out of chaos and why it won't go away. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84, 921-925.
Penland, C., 2003: A Stochastic approach to Nonlinear Dynamics: A Review (Electonic supplement to 'Noise out of chaos and why it won't go away'). Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 84, ES43-ES51.
Compo, G., P. Sardeshmukh, and C. Penland, 2002: Predictability of anomalous storm tracks. The Climate Report, 3, 2-6.
Penland, C., 2002: On the Perception of Probabilistic Forecasts, in Facts and Speculation about La Nina and its Societal Impacts. ed. M.H. Glantz, United Nations University Press, Tokyo, 253-255 (reviewed).
Sura, P., and C. Penland, 2002: Sensitivity of a Double-Gyre Ocean Model to Details of Stochastic Forcing, Ocean Modelling, 4, 327-345.
Sardeshmukh, P., C. Penland and M. Newman, 2001: Climate drifts and variability induced by noise, Proc. 25th Climate Diganostics Workshop, Palisades, NY, Oct. 2000. U.S. Dept. Commerce, Springfield, VA.
Compo, G. P., P. D. Sardeshmukh, and C. Penland, 2001: Changes of Subseasonal Variability associated with El Nino, Journal of Climate, 14, 3356-3374.
Penland, C., and L. Matrosova, 2001: Expected and Actual Errors of Linear Inverse Modeling Forecasts, Monthly Weather Review, 129, 1740-1745.
Sardeshmukh, P. D., C. Penland, and M. Newman, 2001: Rossby waves in a fluctuating medium, Stochastic Climate Models, ed. P. Imkeller and J.-S. von Storch, Progress in Probability, 49, Birkhaueser, Basel (reviewed).
Sardeshmukh, P. D., G. P. Compo, and C. Penland, 2000: Changes of probability associated with El Nino, J. Climate, 13, 4268-4286.
Weickmann, K., W. A. Robinson, and C. Penland, 2000: Stochastic and oscillatory forcing of global atmospheric angular momentum, J. Geophysical Research, 105, 15 543 - 15 557.
Penland, C., and L. Matrosova, 2000: Nonnormal El Nino Evolution in the Early 20th Century, Proc. 24st Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Tucson, AZ, 1-5 Nov., 1999. U. S. Dept. Commerce. Springfield, VA.
Penland, C., M. Fluegel, and P. Chang, 2000: The identification of dynamical regimes in an intermediate coupled ocean-atmosphere model, J. Climate, 13, 2105-2115.
Sardeshmukh, P. D., G. P. Compo, and C. Penland, 1999: Changes of probability associated with El Nino, Proc. 8th Conference on Climate Variations, Denver, CO.
Penland, C., and K. Weickmann, 1999: Linear Inverse Modeling: The good and the not-so-good, Proc. COARE98 Conference, Boulder, CO, 7-14 July, 1998. pg333-334.
Chang, P., L. Ji, H. Li, C. Penland, and L. Matrosova, 1998: Prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperature, Geophysical Research Letters, 25, 1193-1196.
Penland, C., 1998: The effect of additive noise on the tau-test, Proc. 22st Climate Diagnostics Workshop,Berkeley, CA, 5-10 Oct., 1997. U. S. Dept. Commerce. Springfield, VA.
Penland, C., and L. Matrosova, 1998: Prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures using Linear Inverse Modeling J. Climate, 11, 483-496.
Penland, C., and L. Matrosova, 1997: Prediction of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Cuban sector, Boletín de Meteorología, July issue.
Penland, C., and L. Matrosova, 1997: "On the prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures," Proc. 21st Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Huntsville, AL, 28 Oct. - 1 Nov., 1996. U. S. Dept. Commerce. Springfield, VA.
Newman, M., P. D. Sardeshmukh and C. Penland, 1997: Stochastic forcing of the wintertime extratropical flow, J. Atmos. Sci, 54, 435-455.
Penland, C., 1996: A stochastic model of IndoPacific sea surface temperature anomalies, Physica D, 98, 534-558.
Alexander, M. A., and C. Penland, 1996: Variability in a mixed layer ocean model driven by stochastic atmospheric forcing, J. Climate, 9, 2424-2442.
Penland, C., 1996: On the phase-locking between El Niño and the annual cycle, Proc. 20th Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Seattle, WA, 23-27 Oct., 1995. U. S. Dept. Commerce. Springfield, VA.
Penland, C., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1995: The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies, J. Climate, 8, 1999-2024.
Penland, C., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1995: Error and sensitivity analysis of geophysical systems, J. Climate, 8, 1988-1998.
Penland, C., and P.D.Sardeshmukh, 1995: Uncertainty analysis of a linear system, Proc. 19h Climate Diagnostics Workshop, College Park MD, Nov. 13-18, 1994, U. S. Dept. Commerce. Springfield, VA.
Alexander, M., and C. Penland 1995: Variability in a mixed-layer model of the upper ocean driven by stochastic atmospheric surface conditions, Proc. 19h Climate Diagnostics Workshop, College Park MD, Nov. 13-18, 1994, U. S. Dept. Commerce. Springfield, VA.
Newman, M., P.D.Sardeshmukh, and C. Penland 1995: Stochastic forcing of low frequency variability, Proc. 19h Climate Diagnostics Workshop, College Park MD, Nov. 13-18, 1994, U. S. Dept. Commerce. Springfield, VA.
Poveda, G., and C. Penland, 1994: Predicción de caudales medios en Colombia usando Modelación Lineal Inversa, Proc. XVI Congreso Latinoamericano de Hydraulica, Santiago, Chile, IAHR, November 1994.
Penland, C., And L. Matrosova, 1994: A balance condition for stochastic numerical models with application to the El Niño - Southern Oscillation, J. Climate, 7, 1352-1372.
Penland, C., and P. D. Sardeshmukh, 1994: Nonmodal growth of tropical sea surface temperatures, Proc. 6th Conf. on Climate Variations, Nashville, Jan. 23-28, 1994, Amer. Met. Soc. Boston.
Penland, C., and L. Matrosova, 1994: An Empirical-Dynamical Model of Sea Surface Temperatures, Proc. 18th Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Boulder, Nov. 1-5, 1993, U. S. Dept. Commerce. Springfield, VA.
Penland, C., and M. Ghil, 1993: Forecasting Northern Hemisphere 700mb Geopotential Height Anomalies using Empirical Normal Modes, Monthly Weather Review, 121, 2355-2371.
Penland, C., and T. Magorian, 1993: Prediction of Niño 3 Sea-surface Temperature Anomalies using Linear Inverse Modeling,J. Climate, 6, 1067-1075.
García, A., D. Morris, J. Stroh, and C. Penland, 1992: Modeling Complex Phenomena in Fluids, . In Modeling Complex Phenomena, Proc. Third Woodward Conf., San José, April 12-13,1991, Ed. L. Lam, Springer Verlag, New York (reviewed).
Penland, C., and T. Magorian, 1991: Prediction of Niño 3 Sea-surface Temperature Anomalies using Linear Inverse Modeling, Proceedings 16h Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, pg 354.
Penland, C., and M. Ghil, 1991: Deterministic Teleconnections and 'Random' Forcing by Transient Eddies, Proceedings Eighth Conference on Atmospheric and Oceanic Waves and Stability, Denver.
Penland, C., M. Ghil, and K. Weickmann, 1991: Adaptive Filtering and Maximum Entropy Spectra, with Application to Changes in Atmospheric Angular Momentum, Journal of Geophysical Research, 96, 22659 - 22671.
García, A., and C. Penland, 1991: Fluctuating Hydrodynamics and Principal Oscillation Pattern Analysis, Journal of Statistical Physics, 64, 1121-1132.
Penland, C., and M Ghil, 1990: Principal Oscillation Patterns used in Forecasting, Proceedings 15th Annual Climate Diagnostics Workshop, pg 355.
Penland, C., and M. Ghil, 1989: Use of Principal Oscillation Patterns in Forecasting, Proceedings, 11th Conference on Probability and Statistics in Atmospheric Sciences, Monterrey.
Penland, C, 1989: Random Forcing and Forecasting using Principal Oscillation Pattern Analysis, Monthly Weather Review, 117, 2165-2185.
Penland, C., 1988: The Distribution of Random Segment Lengths, Geophysical Research Letters, 15, 1405-1408.
Von Storch, H., P. Lemke, and C. Penland, 1987: Principal Oscillation Pattern Analysis of Sea Ice Data, Report for the European Community, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie.
Penland, C., 1985: "Acoustic Normal Mode Propagation Through a Three-Dimensional Internal Wave Field," J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 78, 1356-1365.
Penland, C., 1983: The Interplay of Absorption and Internal Wave-Induced Mode Coupling in Seawater, Proceedings of the Stochastic Modeling Workshop, held at Naval Research Lab. (NRL), Wash. DC.
Koch, R. A., C. Penland, P. J. Vidmar, and K. Hawker, 1983: "On the Calculation of Normal Mode Group Velocity and Attenuation," J. Acoust. Soc. Am. 73, 820-825.