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PSD Hosts Workshop on the Use of Global Teleconnection Patterns for Weather/Climate Forecasting

February 27, 2009

ESRL's Physical Sciences Division (PSD) and the National Weather Service hosted a one day workshop on "The use of global teleconnection patterns for weather/climate forecasting: Weeks 1-3." The workshop was held in Boulder, CO on February 24th and was geared toward weather-climate forecasters who prepare week 1-3 predictions on a daily basis. PSD provides information to this community of users via a web-based weather-climate maproom. The workshop confirmed that NOAA research aimed at improving 1-3 week predictions is finding application in both the private sector and some government agencies. The comments of users centered on the desire for improved data reliability and for more frequent and focused updates of the weather-climate situation.

The workshop emphasized the importance of meteorological context when making a forecast or when interpreting an NWP prediction. Participants were introduced to a forecast process that combines 1) global monitoring of slow and fast atmosphere-ocean dynamics, 2) predictions from multivariate linear models, and 3) predictions from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models.

Interest in the approach was generated through a blog maintained by Edward Berry, NWS, Dodge City, Kansas. Attendees included a mix of private and government weather-climate forecasters with ~40 total participants. Half represented the natural gas and hedge fund industry and the other half were government forecasters for weather, water or fire. The workshop was centered around two subseasonal phenomena known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the global wind oscillation (GWO). The MJO and GWO, as well as the phase of ENSO, contribute to coherent and potentially predictable slow dynamics.

Contact: Klaus Weickmann