Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and CIRES/CDC Forecast of Nino4 in Global Tropics Domain
Predictions of Niño 3.4 region
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| Region forecasted highlighted above in yellow. |
Predictions of Niño 4 SSTA (red solid line) and verification (blue solid line). Dashed lines indicate one standard deviation confidence intervals appropriate to the LIM forecast. Niño 4 index was calculated in the area 6N-6S, 160E-150W.
 Verification
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Forecasts, Lead = 3 months |
| Forecasts,
Lead = 6 months |
| Forecasts,
Lead = 9 months |
| Forecasts,
Lead = 12 months |
Time series of actual forecast errors normalized by one standard deviation of the expected forecast uncertainty given a perfect model. Blue line: Lead = 3 months. Red line: Lead = 6 months. Black line: Lead = 9 months. Yellow line: Lead = 12 months. Given the dynamical assumptions of the prediction model, forecast errors are Gaussian, and the horizontal lines indicate 95% confidence interval.
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