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SST background anomalies are the residual left after the El Nino + Trend signal is subtracted from the SST anomalies (See El Nino + Trend: Description of SST Predictions). We do not provide LIM forecasts of the background SST anomalies since they are no more skillful than an AR1 forecast. In this section, we provide a map of the background SST anomalies and graphs of the SST background anomaly indices. (See geographical map of Atlantic Indices.) The NTA and STA background indices are significantly anticorrelated. We thus define a Tropical Atlantic Dipole Index as the difference between these indices. That is, TAD = NTA - STA, where the El Nino + Trend signal has been removed from NTA and STA. (Penland, C., and L. Matrosova, 2006: "Studies of El Nino and interdecadal variability in tropical sea surface temperatures using a nonnormal filter.", J. Climate, 19, 5796-5815.) See also: Penland, C., and L. Matrosova, 1998: "Prediction of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures using Linear Inverse Modeling," J. Climate, March,483-496 pp.
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