ESRL Seasonal Forecast Tool, Based on Tropical SSTs
Plot by Forecast Variable
Forecasts made Nov 2009
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Each month, new forecasts are made for the subsequent 4 overlapping 3-month seasons. Usually the forecasts will be updated by the 10th of the month. Forecasts are based on a "two-tiered" approach: 1. tropical (20N-20S) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies are independently predicted (statistically and/or dynamically); 2. these forecast SSTs used as boundary conditions for predicting the seasonal anomalies of precipitation, 500-mb height and surface temperature. Further details on methodology of ESRL 2-Category, 2-Tier Seasonal Forecast Tool.
NOTE: These seasonal forecasts are strictly experimental. NOAA and the Physical Sciences Division are not responsible for any consequences resulting from their use.