ESRL/PSD Analog Probabilistic Precipitation Forecasts
Our reforecast dataset is of comparatively low horizontal resolution (T62, or about 250 km). However, high-resolution probabilistic forecasts can be produced using analog techniques. The precipitation forecast maps produced here utilize a logistic regression methodology.
Note: Choosing "Get verification plots" will give you a map of Brier Skill Score and a Reliability Diagram for forecasts from 1979-2004 for the month, forecast lead time and threshold you have chosen.