The building maintenance scheduled for Friday February 27th at 5:00pm MST has been postponed until 5:00pm March 6th. PSD's website will be down during the maintenance.

Decadal LIM Forecasts : 1-9 year leads

(Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and University of Colorado/CIRES Forecast)

NEWDecadal LIM VERSION 1.0: Forecast indices now available.
Forecast page is out of beta since paper is published, but some parts of the site may still be incomplete.

Current forecasts and verifications

  • Current forecast maps
  • Current verification maps
  • Current forecast indices

  • Standard disclaimer: these forecasts are experimental. NOAA/PSD and CIRES/CDC are not responsible for any loss occasioned by the use of these forecasts.

    Please note: If you acquire Decadal LIM tropical Forecasts from NOAA/PSD and CIRES/CDC, we ask that you acknowledge us in your use of the data. This may be done by including a citation in any documents or publications using these data, for example: "Decadal LIM tropical Forecast data provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Sciences Division and University of Colorado/CIRES, Boulder, CO from their website at, based upon the model described in Newman, M. 2013: An empirical benchmark for decadal forecasts of global surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00590.1, in press." We would also greatly appreciate receiving a copy of the relevant publication. This will help NOAA/PSD and CIRES to justify keeping the Decadal LIM Forecast data freely available online in the future. Thank you!