Forecasts of Annually-averaged Global Surface Temperature using a Linear Inverse Model (LIM)

(Experimental NOAA/ESRL PSD and University of Colorado/CIRES Forecast)

NEWDecadal LIM VERSION 1.0: Forecast indices now available.
Forecast page is out of beta since paper is published, but some parts of the site may still be incomplete.

Forecasts and verifications:

Experimental forecasts of surface temperatures; other variables may become available at a later date. Anomalies are averaged with a 12-month running mean; for display purposes they are then recentered to be relative to the 1980-2009 climatology.

Current initialization and Years 2-5 forecast (oC):


For a full description of the LIM methodology, see:

  • Newman, M. 2013: An empirical benchmark for decadal forecasts of global surface temperature anomalies. J. Climate, 26, 5260-5269. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00590.1.

    This work was supported by grants from NOAA CVP and NSF 1035423. Standard disclaimer: these forecasts are experimental. NSF, NOAA and CIRES are not responsible for any loss occasioned by the use of these forecasts.