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Linear Inverse Modeling Tropical OLR and SST Anomalies Pentads 12, 18, 24, 30, 36, 42 Forecasts

NEWC-LIM VERSION 2.0: Now with 1) 200 and 850 mb winds (including vertical shear), 2) 5-day running means, 3) finer (2 degree) latitude resolution.

Cross-validated C-LIM forecast skill for OLR (left) and SST (right) anomalies. Note that this skill is derived by comparing the forecasts to the (untruncated in EOF space) verifications. These forecast leads are comparable to leads of 2-7 months, although note the skill is of a 5-day average, not of a monthly average.


Cross-validated C-LIM forecast skill for OLR (left) and SST (right) seasonal anomalies, defined from 95-day means. The seasonal forecast anomaly is constructed by averaging either pentads 18-36 (days 86-180) or 36-54 (days 176-270) together to form "Months 4-6" and "Months 7-9" forecasts.