PSD Experimental Climate/Weather Forecasts

PSD generates experimental forecasts on time-scales of weeks to seasons as part of it's research mission. The forecasts and associated information such as verifications are available on the following webpages. It is planned that these forecasts will eventually be transitioned to operational mode.
DescriptionSample Product
Annually-averaged global surface temperature for the upcoming decade
A empirical dynamical technique, linear inverse modeling (LIM), is used to calculate globl averages of surface temperature over the next decade.
decadal LIM Forecast
Experimental Hurricane Forecasts
PSD has developed an experimental forecast product that uses ensembles of very high spatial resolution NCEP GFS forecasts to predict hurricane positions as well as weather variables including near surface winds, water vapor and upper atmospheric variables.
hurricane forecast: slp
Week two ensemble forecasts
Model Output Statistics (MOS) are used to improve 6-10 day and week 2 probabilistic forecasts of 500mb height, 250mb winds, 850mb temperature and precipitation. A 20-year database of a 15-member ensemble of retrospective two-week "re-forecasts" generated with the NCEP MRF are used to correct for model bias and to filter the predictable from the unpredictable in producing the probabilistic forecasts. Prediction maps show upper and lower tercile anomalies, average ensemble values and verifications.
80mb Temperature probability forecast
Linear Inverse Modeling Medium Range (2-6 weeks) Forecasts
A empirical dynamical technique, coupled linear inverse modeling (C-LIM), is used to calculate empirical medium-range forecasts of tropical convection, wind, and SST pentads.
LIM Forecast
Global Tropical SST forecasts
A empirical dynamical technique, linear inverse modeling (LIM), is used to calculate forecasts regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean SSTs ("ENSO"), the tropical Atlantic Ocean SSTs, and the tropical Indian Ocean and the North Atlantic. LIM SST Forecasts are for 3 months to 12 months from the current date. Forecasts are presented as maps of global tropical SST forecasts and timeseries plots that include forecast history and verification.
Teleconnection forecasts
The ESRL/PSD ensemble is used to make daily forecasts of teleconnection indices (PNA, NAO, WPO, and EPO).