Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI)
The views expressed are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of NOAA.
|Click to enlarge|
Outline for MEI webpage (updated on December 3rd, 2014)
This webpage consists of seven main parts:
1. A short description of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI);
2. Historic La Niña events since 1950;
3. Historic El Niño events since 1950;
4. MEI loading maps for the latest season;
5. MEI anomaly maps for the latest season;
6. Discussion of recent conditions;
7. Publications and MEI data access.
El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important coupled ocean-atmosphere phenomenon to cause global climate variability on interannual time scales. Here we attempt to monitor ENSO by basing the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) on the six main observed variables over the tropical Pacific. These six variables are: sea-level pressure (P), zonal (U) and meridional (V) components of the surface wind, sea surface temperature (S), surface air temperature (A), and total cloudiness fraction of the sky (C). These observations have been collected and published in ICOADS for many years. The MEI is computed separately for each of twelve sliding bi-monthly seasons (Dec/Jan, Jan/Feb,..., Nov/Dec). After spatially filtering the individual fields into clusters (Wolter, 1987), the MEI is calculated as the first unrotated Principal Component (PC) of all six observed fields combined. This is accomplished by normalizing the total variance of each field first, and then performing the extraction of the first PC on the co-variance matrix of the combined fields (Wolter and Timlin, 1993). In order to keep the MEI comparable, all seasonal values are standardized with respect to each season and to the 1950-93 reference period.
IMPORTANT CHANGE: The MEI used to be updated every month during the first week of the following month based on near-real time marine ship and buoy observations (courtesy of Diane Stokes at NCEP). However, this product has been discontinued as of March 2011 (ICOADS-compatible 2-degree monthly statistics). Instead, the MEI is now being updated using ICOADS throughout its record. The main change from the previous MEI is the replacement of 'standard' trimming limits with 'enhanced' trimming limits for the period from 1994 through the current update. This leads to slightly higher MEI values for recent El Niño events (especially 1997-98 where the increase reaches up to 0.235 standard deviations), and slightly lower values for La Niña events (up to -.173 during 1995-96). The differences between old and new MEI are biggest in the 1990s when the fraction of time-delayed ship data that did not enter the real-time data bank was higher than in more recent years. Nevertheless, the linear correlation between old and new MEI for 1994 through 2010 is +0.998, confirming the robustness and stability of the MEI vis-a-vis input data changes. Caution should be exercised when interpreting the MEI on a month-to-month basis, since the MEI has been developed mainly for research purposes. Negative values of the MEI represent the cold ENSO phase, a.k.a.La Niña, while positive MEI values represent the warm ENSO phase (El Niño).
IMPORTANT ADDITION: For those interested in MEI values before 1950, a 'sister' website has now been created that presents a simplified MEI.ext index that extends the MEI record back to 1871, based on Hadley Centre sea-level pressure and sea surface temperatures, but combined in a similar fashion as the current MEI. Our MEI.ext paper that looks at the full 135 year ENSO record between 1871 and 2005 is available online at the International Journal of Climatology (Wolter and Timlin, 2011).
Historic La Niña events since 1950
|Click to enlarge|
How does the 2010-12 La Niña event compare against the six previous biggest La Niña events since 1949? This figure includes only strong events (with at least three bimonthly rankings in the top six), after replacing the slightly weaker 2007-09 event with 2010-12 (rankings are listed here). La Niña events have lasted up to and over three years since 1949, in fact, they do tend to last longer on average than El Niño events. The longest two events included here lasted through most of 1954-56 and 1973-75. The longest event NOT included here occurred in 1999-2001 which reached the 'strong' threshold (top six rankings) just once. Click on the "Discussion" button below to find a comparison of recent ENSO-neutral conditions with similar historic situations.
Historic El Niño events since 1950
|Click to enlarge|
How does the 2009-10 El Niño event compare against the seven previous biggest El Niño events since 1950? This figure includes only strong events (with at least three bimonthly rankings in the top six), with the exception of the 2009-10 event that reached the top six ranking twice. Compared to the previous version of this figure, 1997-98 now reaches very similar peak values to the 1982-83 event, just above the +3.0 sigma threshold. Click on the "Discussion" button below to find a comparison of recent ENSO-neutral conditions with similar historic situations.
MEI loading maps for the latest season
|Click to enlarge|
The six loading fields show the correlations between the local anomalies and the MEI time series. Land areas as well as the Atlantic are excluded and flagged in green, while typically noisy regions with no coherent structures and/or lack of data are shown in grey. Each field is denoted by a single capitalized letter and the explained variance for the same field in the Australian corner.
The sea level pressure (P) loadings show the familiar signature of the Southern Oscillation: high pressure anomalies in the west and low pressure anomalies in the east correspond to positive MEI values, or El Niño-like conditions. Consistent with P, U has positive loadings mostly west of the dateline, corresponding to westerly anomalies near the Equator from Indonesia and the Phillippines to 140W. In contrast, significant negative loadings cover the western Maritime Continent, denoting easterly anomalies during El Niño conditions at this time of year. The meridional wind field (V) features scattered negative loadings north of the Equator across the Pacific basin, flagging the southward shift of the ITCZ so common during El Niño-like conditions, juxtaposed with strong positive loadings northeast of Australia (southerly anomalies during El Niño).
Both sea (S) and air (A) surface temperature fields exhibit the typical ENSO signature of a wedge of positive loadings stretching from the Central and South American coast to the dateline, or warm anomalies during an El Niño event. They are flanked by a horse-shoe pattern of negative loadings (cold anomalies during El Niño) to its northwest and, in particular, to its southwest. At the same time, total cloudiness (C) tends to be increased over the central equatorial Pacific and on the northeastern flank of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), sandwiched in between increased cloudiness over Indonesia and the eastern-most equatorial Pacific.
The MEI now stands for 30.9% of the explained variance of all six fields in the tropical Pacific from 30N to 30S, close to its annual peak season. For comparison, this value is 1.8% lower than the one registered in the late 1990s, attesting to an overall weakening of ENSO variability in the last one and half decades. The loading patterns shown here resemble the seasonal composite anomaly fields of Year 0 in a href="#ref_rc">Rasmusson and Carpenter (1982).
MEI anomaly maps for the latest season
|Click to enlarge|
With the MEI indicating renewed El Niño conditions, one can find quite a few key anomalies in the MEI component fields that exceed or equal one standard deviation, or one sigma (compare to loadings figure). A majority of them flag El Niño conditions.
Significant positive anomalies (coinciding with high positive loadings) indicate unusually high sea level pressure (P) north and east of Australia, southerly wind anomalies (V) east of Australia, as well as high sea surface (S) and air (A) temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. Significant negative anomalies (coinciding with high negative loadings) flag strongly enhanced easterlies (U) west of the Phillippines, as well as reduced cloudiness (C) over the eastern-most equatorial Pacific. All of these anomalies are consistent with El Niño, and not just over the western half of the Pacific basin (which was the situation just last month).
On the other hand, high sea level pressure (P) over the eastern tropical Pacific, and warm sea surface temperatures (S) east of Australia are more consistent with La Niña than with El Niño. This is a reduction in the number of 'contrarian' features compared to last month, although equatorial easterlies (U) near the dateline narrowly missed the one sigma threshold.
Go to the discussion below for more information on the current situation.
If you prefer to look at anomaly maps without the clustering filter, check out the climate products in our map room.
Discussion and comparison of recent conditions with historic ENSO-neutral conditions
|Click to enlarge|
In the context of ENSO-neutral conditions from August-September 2013 through January-February 2014, this section features a comparison figure with persistent ENSO-neutral conditions for at least six bimonthly MEI values and ending in close proximity to the ranking of January-February 2014 MEI. Longer-lived neutral conditions (such as 1959-61) could only enter once into this comparison figure.
The updated (October-November) MEI has increased by 0.35 standard deviations to +0.71, recovering about 70% of the losses incurred since July-August. Its current ranking has increased by 5, thus returning to weak El Niño conditions, here defined as the top 20 values since 1950. The long anticipated emergence of El Niño conditions in 2014 appears to enter its second round, after a four-month stint from April-May through July-August. Looking at the nearest 12 rankings (+/-6) in October-November, but requiring a one-month increase by at least 0.05 since September-October yields the following five 'analogue' cases: 1958, '68, '69, '79, and '04. All but 1968 were already in the list of analogues from last month. In the subsequent six months, only 1969-70 did not include at least four bimonthly seasons with El Niño rankings, so the odds of continued El Niño conditions into 2015 look better than just a month ago.
Positive SST anomalies cover much of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, as seen in the latest weekly SST map. Compared to last month, the tropical Pacific appears to have warmed up somewhat, especially in Niño region 3.4 (120-170W).
For an alternate interpretation of the current situation, I recommend reading the NOAA ENSO Advisory which represents the official and most recent Climate Prediction Center opinion on this subject. In its latest update (November 6th, 2014), ENSO-neutral conditions were diagnosed, but were expected to transition to El Niño before the end of 2014, at conservative odds of 58%, consistent with my own statements just one month ago. Given that Niño 3.4 has warmed dramatically over the last month, I expect to see a more 'bullish' statement in the upcoming update.
There are a number of ENSO indices that are kept up-to-date on the web. Several of these are tracked at the NCEP website that is usually updated around the same time as the MEI, in time for this go-around. In early 2014, Niño regions 3 and 3.4 dropped to around -0.5C for both indices, followed by a steady warm-up from March through June, reaching +0.9C for Niño 3, and just shy of +0.5C for Niño 3.4. In July 2014, both indices dropped by more than 0.2C, still above +0.5C for Niño 3, but only +0.2C for Niño 3.4. This continued during the month of August. Since then, monthly values have increased to +0.9C for Niño 3 and +0.85C for Niño 3.4, its highest values since July 2012 and March 2010 for Niño 3 and 3.4, respectively.
For extended Tahiti-Darwin SOI data back to 1876, and timely monthly updates, check the Australian Bureau of Meteorology website. This index has often been out of sync with other ENSO indices in the last decade, including a jump to +10 (+1 sigma) in April 2010 that was ahead of any other ENSO index in announcing La Niña conditions. In 2014, its value has varied from +12 in January (moderate La Niña conditions) to -13 in March and -11 in August (full-blown El Niño conditions). April and May were positive, indicating mild La Niña conditions in opposition to all other ENSO indices, but since August negative SOI values between -8 and -11 indicate at least weak El Niño conditions, confirmed in November with -10. While the SOI remains a noisy ENSO index, it has thus been more decisive since August then most others.
An even longer Tahiti-Darwin SOI (back to 1866) is maintained at the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia website, however with less frequent updates (currently through January 2014). Extended SST-based ENSO data can be found at the University of Washington-JISAO website, which is now more than three years behind in its update (through January 2011).
Stay tuned for the next update by January 10th (sorry, but AMS is really early in 2015) to see where the MEI will be heading next. El Niño already went through a four-month 'dress rehearsal' this summer, but appears to be ready for 'Round 2' after a two-month hiatus this fall. The five historical analogues discussed above confirm the notion that we will see at least weak El Niño conditions over the upcoming boreal winter season. Perhaps, typical El Niño impacts will also be anchored by positive PDO conditions that have prevailed for all of 2014 so far, and were present during much of the five analogue cases as well.
MEI data access and publications
If you have trouble getting the data, please contact me under (Klaus.Wolter@noaa.gov)
You are welcome to use any of the figures or data from the MEI websites, but proper acknowledgment would be appreciated. Please refer to the (Wolter and Timlin, 1993, 1998) papers below (available online as pdf files), and/or this webpage.
In order to access and compare the MEI.ext against the MEI, go here.
- Rasmusson, E.G., and T.H. Carpenter, 1982: Variations in tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 354-384. Available from the AMS.
- Wolter, K., 1987: The Southern Oscillation in surface circulation and climate over the tropical Atlantic, Eastern Pacific, and Indian Oceans as captured by cluster analysis. J. Climate Appl. Meteor., 26, 540-558. Available from the AMS.
- Wolter, K., and M.S. Timlin, 1993: Monitoring ENSO in COADS with a seasonally adjusted principal component index. Proc. of the 17th Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Norman, OK, NOAA/NMC/CAC, NSSL, Oklahoma Clim. Survey, CIMMS and the School of Meteor., Univ. of Oklahoma, 52-57. Download PDF.
- Wolter, K., and M. S. Timlin, 1998: Measuring the strength of ENSO events - how does 1997/98 rank? Weather, 53, 315-324. Download PDF.
- Wolter, K., and M. S. Timlin, 2011: El Niño/Southern Oscillation behaviour since 1871 as diagnosed in an extended multivariate ENSO index (MEI.ext). Intl. J. Climatology, 31, 14pp., in press. Available from Wiley Online Library.
Questions about the MEI and its interpretation should be addressed to:
(Klaus.Wolter@noaa.gov), (303) 497-6340.