Risk of Seasonal Climate Extremes in the U.S. Related to ENSO
Extremes of temperature and precipitation can occur at any time. However, it can be shown that the El Niño/Southern Oscillation has a relationship to the relative frequency of these seasonal climate extremes in the United States. To see which regions of the U.S. have an increased or decreased risk of extreme warm/cold (or dry/wet) seasons during an ENSO event, select from the options below. Note that these changes in ENSO-related climate risk vary not only by region, but also by season.
Important: These plots show regions where the risk of having a seasonal extreme is higher than expected. If you would like average values of temperature and precipitation during El Niño/La Niña, you should look at ENSO composite plots.
Current ENSO State
- Monthly updated MEI discussion
- Monthly updated CPC ENSO advisory
- Daily updated TAO/TRITON display
- PSD's current ENSO webpage.
This page is based on work-in-progress by Klaus Wolter, Jon Eischeid, Randy Dole, Robin Webb, and Cathy Smith of the NOAA/ESRL Physical Science Division. It replaces an earlier version that used data from 1896-1995 and was described in Wolter et al. (1999). You can use these plots in publications though we ask that you acknowledge the Physical Science Division in the publication. For example, "Image provided by the NOAA/ESRL Physical Science Division, Boulder, Colorado, from their web site at: http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/climaterisks".
Related Web Pages:
- US Climate Division Precipitation/Temperature/PDSI plotting page.
- Obtain individual climate division time-series (means, anomalies, ranks).
- El Niño Theme Page from PMEL(NOAA).
- PSD Spotlight article: Global Patterns of the Risk of Seasonal Extremes Related to ENSO.
- Wolter, K., R. M. Dole, and C. A. Smith, 1999: Short-Term Climate Extremes over the Continental United States and ENSO. Part I: Seasonal Temperatures. J. Climate, 12, 3255–3272. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<3255:STCEOT>2.0.CO
- Wolter K. and M. S. Timlin (June 2011): El Niño/Southern Oscillation behaviour since 1871 as diagnosed in an extended multivariate ENSO index (MEI.ext). Int. J. Climatol., 31 (7), 1074-1087. doi:10.1002/joc.2336
- Wolter, K., and M.S. Timlin, 1993: Monitoring ENSO in COADS with a seasonally adjusted principal component index. Proc. of the 17th Climate Diagnostics Workshop, Norman, OK, NOAA/NMC/CAC, NSSL, Oklahoma Clim. Survey, CIMMS and the School of Meteor., Univ. of Oklahoma, 52-57. Download PDF.
- Physical Sciences Division ENSO References
Any comments, suggestions or questions on this page are welcome and should be sent to firstname.lastname@example.org